London, UK - 29th September 2025 - Kalshi, the federally regulated prediction market at the centre of a fierce US regulatory battle, has achieved a major
London, UK - 29th September 2025 - Kalshi, the federally regulated prediction market at the centre of a fierce US regulatory battle, has achieved a major commercial milestone. The platform saw a record $260 million in trading volume during Saturday’s packed football schedule, a figure that for the first time surpassed the volume of a US election day.
The new record underscores the immense popularity of sports-related event contracts and the rapid growth of the platform. “ Nothing beats football in America,” Kalshi co-founder and CEO Tarek Mansour wrote in a post celebrating the achievement. He had previously noted that the first week of the NFL season alone was “basically equal to a US election” in terms of volume.
This record-breaking performance comes at a moment of maximum regulatory peril for the company and the entire prediction markets sector. Today, 29 September, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) are holding their long-awaited joint roundtable in Washington, where the regulation of event contracts is the top item on the agenda.
The summit is seen as a critical showdown that could determine the future of the industry, which is currently caught in a legal “no man’s land” between federal commodities law and state-level sports betting laws.
As federal regulators prepare to debate the issue, the established US sports betting industry is making its position clear. A new survey released by the American Gaming Association (AGA) found that an overwhelming 85% of Americans view prediction markets as a form of gambling, not finance.
Furthermore, 84% believe that sports-related contracts should be offered only by state-licensed sportsbooks, not by federally regulated exchanges like Kalshi. “ Americans are clear: sports event contracts should be treated like other forms of sports betting and fall under state and tribal regulatory authority, not federal commodities regulators,” said AGA president Bill Miller.
Despite the growing coalition of opposition from state regulators, tribal nations, and the commercial gaming industry, Kalshi remains defiant. CEO Tarek Mansour has consistently argued that his platform provides a vital, safe, and regulated alternative to the massive illegal offshore betting market.
“ Legal in all 50 states, so sports fans in places like Texas and California no longer have to resort to predatory, illegal offshore operators who don’t treat their customers properly,” he argued. As Kalshi celebrates its greatest commercial success to date, it is simultaneously facing its greatest existential threat. The outcome of today’s regulatory summit in Washington will be a pivotal moment in the high-stakes battle to define the future of wagering in the US market.
