Macau GGR Forecast Raised as Analysts See Resilient Demand and High Minimum Bets

• Major investment banks are upgrading their forecasts for Macau’s casino sector, with Morgan Stanley now predicting 15% year-on-year Gross Gaming Revenue ( GGR) growth for the second half of 2025.
• The bullish outlook is based on “on-the-ground” observations of full casino floors, high minimum table bets ( HK$1,000+), and strong demand for hotels and non-gaming events.
• JP Morgan has also raised its H2 forecast to 13% growth, citing renewed spending from mainland Chinese business owners and a wealth effect from strong equity markets.
• The market’s strength is allowing major operators like Wynn Macau, MGM China, and Galaxy Entertainment to resume significant dividend payments to shareholders.
• While competition remains intense and operating costs are rising, the analyst consensus is that Macau’s growth cycle will extend well into 2026.

A consensus is forming among leading investment banks that Macau’s casino industry is poised for stronger-than-expected growth, with both Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan upgrading their forecasts for the world’s largest gambling hub.

In a new research note, Morgan Stanley stated it now anticipates GGR in the second half of 2025 to rise by 15% year-on-year. This builds on an earlier report from JP Morgan, which also upgraded its full-year forecast after three consecutive months of outperformance, projecting 13% growth for the second half.

The ‘On-the-Ground’ Reality: Resilient Demand

The optimism is being fuelled by strong on-the-ground evidence of resilient consumer demand. Following a recent field trip to the city, Morgan Stanley analysts reported casino floors that were “full even on a Monday morning.” They noted that minimum bets at premium properties were high, starting at HK$1,000 (approx. 128)at∗∗GalaxyMacau∗∗andreachingupto∗∗HK2,000** at Melco properties.

This robust gaming activity is being supported by a packed non-gaming calendar, with hotel bookings reportedly difficult to secure and concerts and other events selling out months in advance. The banks attribute the recovery to the renewed spending power of mainland Chinese business owners, bolstered by strong performance in the Hong Kong and US equity markets.

Return of Dividends Signals Operator Confidence

The financial health of the market is further underscored by the confident return of significant dividend payments from the city’s major concessionaires. This is a powerful signal to investors that management teams are confident in future cash flows.

Wynn Macau, MGM China, and Galaxy Entertainment have all recently declared interim dividends with payout ratios of more than 50%. Sands China has also resumed payments, though at a lower level as it prioritises the repayment of a loan to its US parent company.

Competitive Landscape and Lingering Headwinds

While the revenue outlook is strong, analysts note that the industry still faces challenges. Operating expenses for the sector rose by 14% in the second quarter, which has so far limited margin growth, though this is expected to improve as revenues climb.

Competition also remains intense. While market shares are expected to be largely stable in the short term, analysts see Wynn and Galaxy as potential winners in the third quarter. Conversely, SJM Holdings is expected to face headwinds from the end of Macau’s satellite casino licensing model, with rivals like Sands and MGM likely to benefit from any subsequent revenue leakage.