• Macau’s Golden Week holiday saw a massive surge in tourism, with 1.14 million visitor arrivals recorded over the extended eight-day period, a 17% year-on-year increase.
• The strong performance, driven by a record influx of mainland China tourists, has fuelled analyst optimism for a strong fourth quarter for the Macau GGR.
• September’s Macau GGR was slightly softer than expected at MOP 18.3 billion, a result impacted by the temporary casino closures for Super Typhoon Ragasa.
• Despite the September dip, year-to-date Macau casino revenue remains on track, with the first nine months already achieving 80% of the government’s full-year target.
• Investment analysts CreditSights believe the city is now in a “decent position” to surpass its official 2025 Macau GGR goal.

Record Golden Week Tourist Arrivals Fuel Optimism

A record-breaking “Golden Week” holiday has provided a major boost to Macau’s economic recovery, fuelling a bullish outlook for the city’s Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) for the remainder of 2025. According to research from the financial analysis firm CreditSights, the surge in tourism from mainland China suggests the Macau casino market is poised to outperform its annual targets.

The eight-day holiday period, which ran from 1 to 8 October, saw a total of 1.14 million people visit the city. This represents a 17% increase on the previous year and included a new single-day arrival record of 191,000 tourists on 4 October. Crucially, the numbers also surpassed pre-pandemic levels, with visitor arrivals up 8% compared to the same holiday period in 2019. The vast majority of these visitors ( 83%) were from mainland China, a key demographic for the Macau GGR.

September GGR Softens but YTD Performance Remains on Track

This wave of positive tourism data comes after a slightly weaker-than-expected month for Macau casino revenue in September. Data from the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ) showed that GGR for the month was MOP 18.3 billion (€2.1bn), a 6% year-on-year increase but below the consensus forecast of 9%.

Analysts at CreditSights have attributed this temporary slowdown to two main factors: typical seasonal patterns and the significant disruption caused by Super Typhoon Ragasa. The powerful storm forced a city-wide shutdown of all casinos for approximately 1.5 days between 23 and 25 September, directly impacting the month’s final Macau GGR tally. Despite this, the city’s year-to-date performance is strong, with GGR for the first nine months of 2025 already reaching MOP 181.3 billion, or 80% of the government’s annual target of MOP 228 billion.

Analysts Upgrade Macau GGR Forecast for Strong Q4

The exceptional Golden Week performance is now expected to provide a powerful tailwind for Macau casino revenue in October and through the rest of the fourth quarter. CreditSights believes the city is in a “decent position” not only to meet but to potentially exceed its 2025 Macau GGR goal.

To hit the official target, the market now only needs to generate a monthly average of MOP 15.6 billion in the final quarter, a figure well below the current average of MOP 20.1 billion per month. This strong momentum has even brought the government’s “stretch goal” of MOP 240 billion for the year into the realm of possibility. The data provides the clearest signal yet that the Macau recovery remains firmly intact, with robust demand from mainland China tourism set to drive a strong finish to 2025.