• US President Donald Trump is trading as one of the top contenders to win the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize on major prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi.
• On both platforms, Trump is the second favourite, with market-implied odds of 11-13%, behind Russian opposition figure Yulia Navalnaya.
• Prediction markets allow users to trade contracts on the outcome of future events, with prices reflecting the collective sentiment of traders.
• The growing popularity and regulatory ambiguity of these platforms was highlighted as Australia’s regulator, ACMA, recently ordered internet providers to block Polymarket.
• ACMA ruled that Polymarket was operating as an unlicensed gambling service in breach of the country’s Interactive Gambling Act 2001.

Traders on prediction market platforms are giving US President Donald Trump a significant chance of winning the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize, placing him as the second favourite for one of the world’s most prestigious awards. The markets reflect strong sentiment for his candidacy, highlighting the growing mainstream engagement with political and current events wagering.

On the blockchain-based platform Polymarket, Trump is currently trading with an 11% implied probability, second only to Russian human rights advocate Yulia Navalnaya at 18%. The market has seen over one million dollars wagered. A similar picture has emerged on the US-regulated exchange Kalshi, where Trump holds a 13% chance, again behind Navalnaya who leads the field at 25%.

A Barometer of Public Sentiment

Prediction markets allow users to buy and sell contracts on the outcome of future events, with the contract prices fluctuating to reflect the market’s collective belief in the probability of an outcome. Only four American presidents have ever received the honour, the most recent being Barack Obama in 2009.

While the secretive Norwegian Nobel Committee doesn’t follow betting trends, the markets serve as a powerful, financially-weighted indicator of public sentiment and global attention surrounding high-profile events.

The Regulatory Pushback: Australia Blocks Polymarket

Even as these platforms gain traction, they are facing significant and growing regulatory headwinds across the globe. In a major recent development, the Australian Communications and Media Authority (ACMA) ordered the country’s internet service providers to block access to Polymarket.

The Australian regulator ruled that the platform had been operating in breach of the Interactive Gambling Act 2001. ACMA stated that Polymarket was offering unlicensed gambling services to Australians, allowing them to bet on political and global events using digital currencies. The regulator also noted that the platform had used social media influencers to promote its services, which it deemed to be an unlawful gambling activity.

A Global Challenge for Regulators

The situation perfectly encapsulates the challenge facing the global gambling industry and its regulators. On one hand, innovative platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi are demonstrating a clear public appetite for new forms of wagering on a huge range of outcomes. On the other hand, regulators like ACMA are moving to apply existing gambling laws to these new, often decentralised and crypto-based technologies. The outcome of these clashes will be critical in defining the future of this rapidly growing vertical.