Traders on prediction market platforms are giving US President Donald Trump a significant chance of winning the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize, placing him as the
Traders on prediction market platforms are giving US President Donald Trump a significant chance of winning the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize, placing him as the second favourite for one of the world’s most prestigious awards. The markets reflect strong sentiment for his candidacy, highlighting the growing mainstream engagement with political and current events wagering.
On the blockchain-based platform Polymarket, Trump is currently trading with an 11% implied probability, second only to Russian human rights advocate Yulia Navalnaya at 18%. The market has seen over one million dollars wagered. A similar picture has emerged on the US-regulated exchange Kalshi, where Trump holds a 13% chance, again behind Navalnaya who leads the field at 25%.
Prediction markets allow users to buy and sell contracts on the outcome of future events, with the contract prices fluctuating to reflect the market’s collective belief in the probability of an outcome. Only four American presidents have ever received the honour, the most recent being Barack Obama in 2009.
While the secretive Norwegian Nobel Committee doesn’t follow betting trends, the markets serve as a powerful, financially-weighted indicator of public sentiment and global attention surrounding high-profile events.
Even as these platforms gain traction, they are facing significant and growing regulatory headwinds across the globe. In a major recent development, the Australian Communications and Media Authority (ACMA) ordered the country’s internet service providers to block access to Polymarket.
The Australian regulator ruled that the platform had been operating in breach of the Interactive Gambling Act 2001. ACMA stated that Polymarket was offering unlicensed gambling services to Australians, allowing them to bet on political and global events using digital currencies. The regulator also noted that the platform had used social media influencers to promote its services, which it deemed to be an unlawful gambling activity.
The situation perfectly encapsulates the challenge facing the global gambling industry and its regulators. On one hand, innovative platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi are demonstrating a clear public appetite for new forms of wagering on a huge range of outcomes. On the other hand, regulators like ACMA are moving to apply existing gambling laws to these new, often decentralised and crypto-based technologies. The outcome of these clashes will be critical in defining the future of this rapidly growing vertical.
