Kalshi has abandoned plans to launch prediction markets on college athlete transfers after the NCAA condemned the move as a threat to student safety.
Prediction market operator Kalshi has abruptly halted plans to allow trading on the decisions of college athletes entering the NCAA transfer portal. The withdrawal comes after the proposal sparked immediate backlash from the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) and the broader sports community.
Kalshi had filed a self-certification with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to list event contracts tied to specific student-athletes' transfer decisions. These contracts, which were scheduled to go live as early as 17 December, would have allowed users to speculate on whether players would enter or exit the portal within a specific timeframe.
However, within hours of the filing becoming public, Kalshi reversed course. In a statement, the company claimed that the filing was routine procedural work rather than an imminent product launch. "We certify markets all the time that we do not end up listing; despite our competitors having these markets live, we have no immediate plans to list these contracts," the company stated.
The reversal was likely triggered by a blistering public statement from NCAA President Charlie Baker, who warned that such markets would expose student-athletes to increased harassment.
"It is already bad enough that student-athletes face harassment and abuse for lost bets on game performance," Baker wrote. "Their decisions and future should not be gambled with, especially in an unregulated marketplace that does not follow any rules of legitimate sports betting operators."
Baker’s comments highlighted a core tension in the current US sports landscape: the vulnerability of amateur athletes to the frustrations of bettors. The NCAA argued that commodifying a teenager's life decision, such as which university to attend, crossed a moral line that standard sports betting does not.
While complying with the request to pull the markets, Kalshi pushed back strongly against the characterisation of its business as "unregulated" or illegitimate.
"It’s inaccurate to say we are unregulated," the company told reporters. "We are a federally regulated exchange, governed by the Commodity Exchange Act... Kalshi works like the stock market instead of like a casino. In casinos, the house always wins. With Kalshi, there is no house."
The company noted that it employs comprehensive Know-Your-Customer (KYC) checks and surveillance systems to monitor for insider trading, a key concern given that coaches or family members could theoretically trade on non-public information regarding a player's transfer plans.
This incident exposes the friction between the Silicon Valley ethos of "marketising everything" and the protective instincts of sports governing bodies. Kalshi's model relies on the CFTC's self-certification process, which allows them to bypass the state-by-state approval process that sportsbooks like DraftKings must navigate.
While legally clever, this approach carries significant reputational risk. By attempting to list markets on amateur transfer decisions, Kalshi inadvertently handed ammunition to its critics. The "Transfer Portal" is already a sensitive topic in college sports; turning it into a tradable asset validates the argument that prediction markets are simply "gambling by another name" but without the guardrails that leagues have negotiated with state regulators.
The NCAA’s victory here is significant. It demonstrates that despite lacking direct regulatory power over the CFTC, the association retains enough soft power to shame operators into backing down. However, the mention of "competitors having these markets live" suggests the game of whack-a-mole is far from over. Unregulated offshore sites will likely continue to offer these props, leaving the regulated US market to debate where the ethical line should be drawn.
