Thailand’s ambitious plan to legalise casinos in the kingdom faces significant jeopardy, as Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s handling of the escalating border conflict with Cambodia has plunged her political survival into question. The ongoing crisis has emboldened her opponents and cast a shadow over the future of the proposed multi-billion-dollar casino resorts.

Tensions along a disputed section of the 820-kilometre land border between Thailand and Cambodia have been simmering for weeks. In May, skirmishes erupted, tragically resulting in the death of a Cambodian soldier. Since the incident, both countries have implemented tit-for-tat measures, including restrictions on border crossings and suspended trade. The Thailand Royal Army notably ordered all Thai nationals who work at Cambodian casinos to stay home until further notice, effective June 17, with leisure travellers also barred from crossing into Cambodia for “gambling reasons.”

The political crisis deepened significantly on June 15, when a private phone call between Prime Minister Paetongtarn and former Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen was leaked to the public. In the recording, Prime Minister Paetongtarn was heard adopting a deferential tone towards the former Cambodian leader, addressing him as “uncle” and urging him to disregard “the other side” in Thailand, including a leading Thai border official. She conveyed, as reported by iGaming Times, that “Right now, that side wants to look cool, they will say things that are not beneficial to the nation,” adding, “But what we want is to have peace just like before any clashes happened at the border.” She further indicated, as reported by iGaming Times, that if Hun Sen “wants anything, [he] can just tell me and I will take care of it.”

In response to the leaked call, an outraged Bhumjaithai Party, a key coalition partner of the ruling Pheu Thai Party, formally withdrew its support. In a statement, Bhumjaithai demanded that Prime Minister Paetongtarn “show responsibility for making the country lose its integrity [and] honour.” Prime Minister Paetongtarn later publicly apologised for her remarks (on June 19) and accused Hun Sen of recording and leaking the call without her knowledge, adding another layer to the diplomatic fallout.

Political Survival in Question

The new crisis has severely emboldened Prime Minister Paetongtarn’s enemies, who now perceive a renewed opportunity to overthrow the leader less than a year since her inauguration. This comes after she narrowly survived a no-confidence vote in March, when rivals accused her of acting at the behest of her father, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. Her potential ouster could unravel the ambitious plan to introduce casino resorts in the country, a strategy aimed at boosting tourism and foreign investment. The ruling Pheu Thai Party had originally attempted to fast-track the casino proposal, hoping to open the first “entertainment complexes” by 2029. However, the plan has consistently met with fierce opposition from anti-gambling activists and some government factions, including members of the now-departed Bhumjaithai Party.

Last week (early June 2025), a network of civic organisations sent a petition bearing 53,900 signatures to Thailand’s Election Commission, specifically calling for a national referendum on the casino legislation. Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a professor of political science at Chulalongkorn University, stated, as reported by iGaming Times (originally CNN), that Prime Minister Paetongtarn “compromised her position as prime minister and damaged Thai national interest by kowtowing to Hun Sen.” He suggested her exit is “a matter of time” and that she “could be liable for further charges.” The leaked audio has been noted for its potential to deepen divisions in Thai society and within the military.

Government ‘Fragility’ Creates Risk

Leaders in Thailand’s tourism sector have cautioned the government against rushing the passage of the casino bill, warning that it could lead to more street protests and discourage international travellers. Thienprasit Chaiyapatranun, president of the Thai Hotels Association, stated, as reported by iGaming Times (originally the Bangkok Post), that “Given the government’s fragility, quickly pushing the Entertainment Complex Bill into the next parliamentary session would create more risks for the country.” He added that the project has “consistently drawn a lot of criticism and opposition.” Chaiyapatranun concurred with Thanakorn Khomkrit of Thailand’s Stop Gambling Foundation that a referendum would provide the government with “a clear mandate from the people” on the contentious casino issue. He further conveyed, as reported by iGaming Times, that “If the government rushes this project, they should let the public voice their opinion via a referendum,” stressing that “The private sector cannot fully support it if we cannot see the final draft.”

Meanwhile, the escalating border conflict is already taking a significant toll on Cambodian casinos. Gaming halls in border towns like Poipet, often referred to as Cambodia’s “Sin City” and heavily reliant on Thai patronage, have reportedly seen a dramatic 90% drop in gamblers from Thailand since border restrictions were imposed. In response, Cambodian casinos are attempting to mitigate losses by trying to attract gamblers back with discounted room rates, airfares, and other promotions.

The intertwining of political instability, a sensitive border dispute, and the controversial casino legalisation plan creates a highly volatile situation for Thailand. The political survival of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra now appears inextricably linked to her ability to navigate these complex challenges, with the casino project’s future hanging in the balance amidst widespread calls for public consultation.