Commodity Futures Trading Commission orders, no-action letters, and rulemaking on event-contract markets. Tracks the regulatory status of Polymarket, Kalshi, Robinhood prediction markets, and the evolving CFTC stance on event contracts under successive Commission compositions.
Six months after securing federal approval, Polymarket has finally opened its US exchange to general iOS users. The platform's American comeback is now operational, and the competitive landscape with Kalshi just got considerably more interesting.
Corporate - Liam O'Brien - 20 May 2026
The most consequential US gambling story of the year has just unfolded inside one company. Amy Howe is out at FanDuel, the sportsbook is bleeding customers and Flutter is betting nine figures on prediction markets to fix it.
Corporate - Liam O'Brien - 8 May 2026
Four years after being forced out of the American market, Polymarket is reportedly in discussions with the CFTC about a full domestic return. The timing could not be more politically charged.
Prediction Markets - Liam O'Brien - 29 Apr 2026
The CFTC is no longer just defending prediction markets in court. It is now going on the offensive against the states trying to shut them down. New York is the latest target in a rapidly expanding federal legal campaign.
Corporate - Liam O'Brien - 27 Apr 2026
New York's Attorney General is calling prediction markets what she says they really are: illegal gambling. The lawsuits against two of crypto's biggest names mark a significant escalation in the state versus federal battle over who controls this fast-growing sector.
Corporate - Liam O'Brien - 22 Apr 2026
A platform that was paying CFTC fines and blocking US users just three years ago is now reportedly worth $15 billion. Polymarket's comeback is one of the most dramatic turnarounds in the prediction markets industry.
Corporate - Liam O'Brien - 21 Apr 2026
A congressional hearing has exposed deep uncertainty at the heart of American prediction markets regulation. When the CFTC chair cannot tell a prediction market contract apart from a sportsbook bet, the regulatory gap becomes impossible to ignore.
Regulatory - Liam O'Brien - 17 Apr 2026
Washington's derivatives regulator has named the team that will help shape the future of prediction markets, cryptocurrency and AI regulation. The appointments signal where the CFTC's priorities lie.
Regulatory - Liam O'Brien - 15 Apr 2026
From Robinhood's selective product choices to Europe's blanket bans, the prediction markets industry is facing a moment of reckoning over market integrity. The question is whether the sector can regulate itself before regulators do it for them.
Prediction Markets - Liam O'Brien - 13 Apr 2026
Kalshi insists its products are financial instruments. State regulators insist they are bets. A Nevada judge has sided firmly with the regulators, and the fight is now playing out in courtrooms across the country.
Prediction Markets - Liam O'Brien - 6 Apr 2026
Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes has filed 20 criminal misdemeanour charges against prediction market platform Kalshi, alleging it operated an unlicensed gambling business and accepted bets on state elections in violation of Arizona law, marking the first criminal prosecution of a prediction market company by any US state.
Prediction Markets - Liam O'Brien - 17 Mar 2026
The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission has issued binding staff guidance and opened a formal advance rulemaking process on prediction markets, signalling a decisive shift under Chairman Mike Selig as event contracts surge from five per year in 2006 to roughly 1,600 certified contracts in 2025.
Prediction Markets - Liam O'Brien - 12 Mar 2026
Israeli police are investigating a large Polymarket wager that correctly predicted a United States strike on Iran on 28 February, amid concerns about possible insider knowledge and renewed scrutiny of how prediction platforms handle high risk geopolitical markets.
Prediction Markets - Liam O'Brien - 4 Mar 2026
A Nevada federal judge has remanded disputes involving Kalshi and Polymarket back to state court, a shift that clears the way for Nevada regulators to pursue rapid orders that could restrict prediction market contracts offered to residents.
Prediction Markets - Liam O'Brien - 3 Mar 2026
DraftKings has reorganised parts of its workforce as it ramps up automation and scales its prediction market ambitions, with management and analysts pointing to cost alignment, AI driven decisioning, and infrastructure changes ahead of a major 2026 sports calendar.
Prediction Markets - Liam O'Brien - 24 Feb 2026
The SEC is stepping up scrutiny of prediction markets and coordinating weekly with the CFTC, as Chairman Paul Atkins told senators that contract design and activity can trigger overlapping jurisdiction and shape how regulators ultimately classify these products.
Prediction Markets - Liam O'Brien - 16 Feb 2026
The UK Gambling Commission has officially categorised prediction markets as gambling, requiring operators to secure a Betting Intermediary licence and warning that unlicensed firms targeting British punters face criminal prosecution.
Prediction Markets - Liam O'Brien - 9 Feb 2026
A Massachusetts judge has granted a preliminary injunction against prediction market Kalshi, prohibiting the platform from offering sports related contracts to residents without a state licence. The ruling, which follows a lawsuit by Attorney General Andrea Joy Campbell, marks the first successful state level block of the company’s sports business and challenges its claim that federal CFTC regulation preempts local gambling laws.
Prediction Markets - Liam O'Brien - 21 Jan 2026
Nevada's landmark lawsuit against Polymarket marks a pivotal shift in the war between state gaming regulators and federally licensed prediction markets, as the "Silver State" seeks to protect its licensing monopoly from Silicon Valley's latest financial innovations.
Prediction Markets - Liam O'Brien - 20 Jan 2026
Bryson DeChambeau has made history as the first individual athlete to represent Kalshi, marking a significant crossover between the world of elite golf and the rapidly expanding prediction market sector.
Prediction Markets - Liam O'Brien - 19 Jan 2026
Tennessee regulators have issued a stern ultimatum to Kalshi and Polymarket demanding an immediate halt to all sports wagering activities within the state. The move follows allegations that these platforms are bypassing local gambling laws by offering unlicensed sports event contracts to residents. Companies have until the end of January to refund all customer deposits or face heavy fines and potential criminal investigation.
Prediction Markets - Liam O'Brien - 10 Jan 2026
Dow Jones has signed an exclusive deal to integrate Polymarket's prediction data into The Wall Street Journal and MarketWatch, signalling a major shift in how financial news utilises betting odds to gauge future events.
Prediction Markets - Liam O'Brien - 7 Jan 2026
A Polymarket trader turned $30,000 into $436,000 by betting on President Maduro's capture days before it happened, sparking debate over whether prediction markets incentivise insider trading on military conflicts.
Prediction Markets - Liam O'Brien - 5 Jan 2026
Kalshi has abandoned plans to launch prediction markets on college athlete transfers after the NCAA condemned the move as a threat to student safety.
Prediction Markets - Liam O'Brien - 24 Dec 2025
Kalshi and Polymarket Hit Record Trading Volumes in October
Prediction Markets - Liam O'Brien - 5 Nov 2025
Crypto exchange Kraken acquires CFTC licensed Small Exchange for $100m, gaining a DCM license to launch regulated US prediction markets and compete with Kalshi.
Prediction Markets - Liam O'Brien - 21 Oct 2025
In a move that dramatically blurs the lines between online speculation and mainstream financial trading, the popular crypto prediction market Polymarket has
Prediction Markets - Liam O'Brien - 17 Oct 2025
Nevada's top gaming regulator has dramatically escalated its fight against prediction markets, issuing a formal notice that warns its own licensees they could
Prediction Markets - Liam O'Brien - 16 Oct 2025
If you wanted a perfect snapshot of the post-PASPA world, this week delivered it. We saw a legacy institution, the NCAA, finally bow to the inevitable reality
Prediction Markets - Liam O'Brien - 11 Oct 2025
Wolverhampton, UK - 30th September 2025 - A landmark joint summit between the United States' top two financial regulators, the SEC and the CFTC, which was
Prediction Markets - Liam O'Brien - 30 Sept 2025
London, UK - 29th September 2025 - Colombia's regulated online gambling industry has called on the national gaming authority, Coljuegos, to block the US-based
Prediction Markets - Liam O'Brien - 29 Sept 2025
London, UK - 29th September 2025 - Kalshi, the federally regulated prediction market at the centre of a fierce US regulatory battle, has achieved a major
Prediction Markets - Liam O'Brien - 29 Sept 2025
The rapidly growing but legally contentious prediction market sector has officially broken into the mainstream, having been thoroughly satirised in the latest
Prediction Markets - Liam O'Brien - 25 Sept 2025
In a highly anticipated move, the United States' two most powerful financial regulators, the SEC and the CFTC, have announced they will convene a joint public
Prediction Markets - Liam O'Brien - 8 Sept 2025
A new and heavily-backed contender is entering the rapidly evolving prediction market space, armed with $15 million in seed funding and a team with deep
Prediction Markets - Liam O'Brien - 1 Sept 2025
Financial technology firm Robinhood has taken the aggressive step of suing the state gambling regulators in New Jersey and Nevada, launching a direct legal
Prediction Markets - Liam O'Brien - 21 Aug 2025
Retail investment platform Robinhood has announced it will begin offering football prediction markets to its millions of users, a move that pushes the popular
Prediction Markets - Liam O'Brien - 20 Aug 2025
The battle over the future of US wagering regulation has escalated dramatically, as the federally licensed prediction market Kalshi has filed a proposal to
Prediction Markets - Liam O'Brien - 19 Aug 2025
Traders on prediction market platforms are giving US President Donald Trump a significant chance of winning the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize, placing him as the
Prediction Markets - Liam O'Brien - 18 Aug 2025
US operator DraftKings has reported a strong second quarter for 2025, posting record revenue and profitability that sent its share price climbing in
Prediction Markets - Liam O'Brien - 9 Aug 2025
