Prediction Markets News and Regulation

Two associations of gaming regulators have told the Supreme Court that the same Kalshi contract is shielded from state law in New Jersey and subject to it in Ohio, and that only the Court can end that. They follow a group of state lawmakers in backing New Jersey's petition; nobody has yet filed for Kalshi.

A Chicago judge has found that Kalshi's championship contracts are likely swaps and that Illinois likely cannot make the exchange take out a sports wagering licence. She has not yet ruled on the state's new 1.75% to 3.5% prediction-market fee, and her reasoning puts her at odds with a Wisconsin judge in the same circuit and with two federal appeals courts.

The Ohio Casino Control Commission has told Polymarket, Robinhood, Coinbase and seven other platforms to stop offering sports event contracts to Ohioans and confirm it in writing within 14 days. Kalshi, the company that lost in the Sixth Circuit, did not get a letter: its $5 million penalty case is already under way.

Ohio's governor has called prediction markets "really gambling, nothing more than that" and promised enforcement after the Sixth Circuit ruled for the state. The commission's proposed $5 million penalty against Kalshi has been pending since April, and Kalshi says the ruling will not survive further review.

Polymarket has confirmed it is challenging the Dutch gambling regulator's order in court, after being charged for blocking Dutch users a day late. Its case is that event contracts belong with the financial markets supervisor, an argument that, if it won, could land it under the Netherlands' indefinite ban on selling binary options to retail clients.

On the opening main stage at G2E, the chief executives of MGM Resorts and Caesars called prediction markets illegal, "obscene" and a risk to the whole industry. Wynn Resorts' Craig Billings said his company had no "skin in the game", and recalled what the Strip lost by fighting California's tribes.

Kalshi has asked the Ninth Circuit to hold its rehearing petition until the CFTC rewrites its rule on gaming contracts, which the agency says will be final within two months. Nevada's answer is that the court already knew the rule was changing, and that the panel's ruling never depended on it.

Polymarket's offshore exchange lists contracts on whether 19 of the world's biggest banks, HSBC and Lloyds among them, will fail by the end of 2026. The sums are small, but a Treasury Committee MP warns that a market on a bank's collapse could help cause one, and Britain's regulators have so far said little more than that they are talking to their counterparts abroad.

Federal prosecutors say contracts on the capture of Nicolás Maduro "are inherently economic" and so qualify as swaps, whatever two appeals courts have said about Kalshi's sports contracts. The question decides whether the first insider-trading prosecution over prediction-market trades survives, and argument is set for 7 October.

The Ministry of Finance has listed kalshi.com as a site offering prohibited gambling, and internet providers must block it by 15 October. The order covers the website only, but it puts the largest US prediction market on the same footing in Czechia as an unlicensed online casino.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has asked the White House to clear a rule defining event contracts as swaps, the classification on which its claim to exclusive jurisdiction rests, and a second that would exclude "casino-style gambling products" with immediate effect. Neither text is public, and both arrive days after a second federal appeals court rejected the swaps argument.

The two-year programme lets Kalshi match deposits and trading with bonus credits, target them by account age, inactivity and location, and confine them to sports contracts. It went to the CFTC as the exchange certified contracts on Premier League sanctions against Manchester City, days after reports of a verdict against the club.