Kalshi, Polymarket and Robinhood's new Rothera venue combined for more than $50 billion in trading volume in June, dwarfing the handle traditional US sportsbooks are projected to take across the entire World Cup. The tournament has become the clearest evidence yet that event contracts are competing with regulated betting, not sitting beside it.
A Manhattan federal judge has ruled that Kalshi's federal registration does not shield its sports contracts from New York gambling law, the prediction-market sector's most significant legal setback to date. The decision clears the way for state regulators and the Attorney General to pursue enforcement, and Kalshi has already appealed.
North Carolina's newly signed budget lifts the online sports-betting tax from 18% to 23% of gross wagering revenue and creates a 6% tax on prediction-market operators, the first state levy of its kind. The higher rate makes North Carolina one of the costlier US markets for licensed sportsbooks.
An Ingham County judge has granted a 14-day temporary restraining order barring prediction-market operator Kalshi from offering sports event contracts to anyone in Michigan, with noncompliance carrying a penalty of $120,000 per day. It is the latest state to treat the federally registered exchange as an unlicensed sportsbook.
The prediction-market exchange is raising fresh capital at roughly twice its most recent valuation, with the World Cup pushing trading volumes higher. A potential 2027 listing is now on the table.
A new analysis argues that crypto-based [prediction markets](/glossary) operating outside traditional banking oversight could make football's biggest tournament a channel for money laundering, illicit betting and match manipulation. With global World Cup wagering estimated to exceed $50 billion, the report frames the integrity risk as structural rather than incidental.
Nevada's gaming regulator wants KalshiEX held in contempt, and hit with penalties of up to $120,000 a day, for letting people inside the state trade event contracts a court told it to block. The twist: federal judges have just ruled the opposite way, leaving the same product protected in one forum and prosecuted in another.
New Jersey senators have advanced a trio of responsible gambling bills, led by S-2356's mandate to study and standardise advertising language, as the state's iGaming revenue hits a record $276.3 million and builds on the Division of Gaming Enforcement's new behavioural-monitoring standards.
Polymarket has reportedly removed the waitlist on its US iOS app, opening its prediction-market exchange to general American users for the first time since 2022. The comeback rests on its $112 million QCEX acquisition and a CFTC no-action letter, and it sharpens an already intense rivalry with market leader Kalshi.
