AGA: Legal NFL Handle Flat at $29.5bn as Prediction Markets Take the Growth

The American Gaming Association expects Americans to bet $29.5 billion legally on the 2026 NFL season, up barely at all on last year's $29.4 billion. Its chief executive says the reason is "backdoor sports betting" on prediction markets, and the numbers it cites for Novig, Rothera and Underdog explain why.

• The AGA's annual projection, released on 4 September, puts legal wagering on the 2026 NFL season through regulated commercial sportsbooks at $29.5 billion, against $29.4 billion a year ago
• Chief executive Bill Miller said the growth in legal handle "has stalled" since the widespread launch of sports event contracts on prediction markets
• The association estimates the platforms have siphoned more than $1.3 billion in potential state gaming tax revenue since 2025
• It cites Novig, which launched on 4 August, as averaging 23.3 million contracts a day over the week to 23 August, ahead of Rothera at 18.0 million and Underdog at 16.0 million
• The season opens on Wednesday with the New England Patriots at the Seattle Seahawks, a rematch of last season's Super Bowl

The First Flat NFL Season Since Sports Betting Went Legal

The American Gaming Association's projection for the coming NFL season is the first since the Supreme Court struck down the federal sports betting ban in 2018 to show no meaningful growth in legal handle, according to the association's release, reported in detail by Gaming America. Americans are expected to wager $29.5 billion on the season through regulated commercial sportsbooks, against $29.4 billion for the 2025 season.

Bill Miller, the AGA's president and chief executive, put the cause in one sentence. "Since the widespread launch of backdoor sports betting on so-called 'prediction markets,' the growth of legal handle has stalled," he said. Platforms including Polymarket and Novig have expanded sports event contracts nationwide, the association said, and sports-related activity now makes up the majority of revenue for several of them.

The association attached a fiscal figure to the claim: prediction markets have siphoned more than $1.3 billion in potential state gaming tax revenue since 2025, at a time when legal, regulated sports betting supports an estimated 1.8 million jobs and generates roughly $18 billion a year in tax. Miller described the marketing of sports event contracts as "dangerously misleading consumers by marketing sports wagers as an investment, rather than what it is: entertainment".

The Volume Figures Are the Part Sportsbooks Will Read Twice

The AGA's material carried contract-volume figures that give a sense of scale. Novig, a platform built entirely around sports event contracts, launched on 4 August and averaged 23.3 million contracts a day over the seven days to 23 August. Rothera averaged 18.0 million and Underdog 16.0 million over the same period. Underdog announced this weekend that it is surrendering its fantasy licences in seven states to keep those contracts on offer.

Dominic Hammond, senior vice president of sports at Caesars Digital, told Gaming America the platforms are "a very formidable offering" spending "a lot of money", and that Caesars views the product as sports betting: "If you can build a parlay, that's sports betting, right? I don't think you can call it anything else." He said Caesars is leaning on features the exchanges cannot easily copy, including its Flex Parlays product, which can still pay when a leg loses, and its loyalty programme. "They're not impacting our strategy, but we view them as a competitor," he said.

The projection arrives in a week when the fight over who regulates the exchanges moved up a level. New Jersey asked the Supreme Court to resolve the question, and the NFL itself renewed sportsbook deals while locking the exchanges out of its official data and marketing.

A Flat Number Is a Bigger Story Than a Falling One Would Be

Legal handle has not fallen. It has stopped growing in a market that had added billions every season, in a year with a new prediction-market entrant every month. That is the strongest evidence yet that the exchanges are not creating new demand so much as intercepting it, and it is why the AGA framed the release around a tax number rather than a revenue number: $1.3 billion in foregone state tax is the figure that gets a governor's attention. The weakness in the argument is that a projection is not a result; the season has not been played, and the AGA has an interest in the exchanges looking large. The contract-volume figures, though, come with names attached and will be easy to check against the platforms' own disclosures.

Novig's First Month Shows How Fast the Category Moves

Novig did not exist as a live sports exchange in July and was averaging 23 million contracts a day by the third week of August, on the AGA's numbers. Kalshi, the pace-setter, is absent from the AGA's comparison, which suggests the association chose to show the size of the second tier rather than the leader. If three platforms below Kalshi are each clearing 16 to 23 million contracts a day before the NFL starts, the regulated books' problem is not one competitor but a category.

The Sportsbooks' Answer Is Product, Because the Legal Answer Is Out of Their Hands

Hammond's comments are the most candid a major operator has been about the threat, and they show where the industry thinks it can compete: parlays with forgiveness, rewards, and the brand. Whether that is enough depends on courts and regulators, and the Nevada board said this week it regards the contracts as bets. The books will spend this season proving the AGA's number wrong or right, and they will be doing it while the referee is still being chosen.

A flat $29.5 billion is not a crisis for the regulated industry. It is the first season in which its growth belonged to someone else, and that is the number the states will remember.