Prediction Markets
Event contracts, the exchanges that list them, and the running dispute between federal derivatives regulation and state gambling law over who is in charge.
Hours after the NFL wrote prediction markets out of its data rights, Sportradar extended official data, streaming and integrity services to Polymarket across more than 20 competitions. One property is conspicuously absent from every one of these deals.
Sixteen days after beating Kalshi in federal court, Connecticut filed its own verified complaint in Hartford. The cease and desist asked the exchange to stop. This asks it to pay back what it has already earned.
Two filings lodged with the CFTC on Tuesday turn individual NFL player availability into federally listed event contracts, trading from Thursday with no position limits. The legal argument for why they comply is sealed.
The Dodgers, Red Sox, Braves, Padres and Giants are Kalshi partners, and had been for weeks before anyone said so. Three of the five are in California, where no state lawsuit has been filed and the lobbying has already started.
The American Gaming Association's strategic adviser told CNBC that Michael Selig misled the President about how the state cases are going, and that prediction market chiefs were uninvited from last week's White House event. The second claim is the one worth checking.
A soldier is charged with turning $33,000 into more than $400,000 on contracts predicting the capture of Nicolas Maduro. Five days earlier, the CFTC chairman called the Venezuela example fake news.
A two-page letter to the Ninth Circuit argues that a company claiming federal law bars state regulation cannot then accept a state tax on the same contracts. The panel has been sitting on this case since April.
A King County judge has ordered sports, elections, politics, entertainment and "mentions" markets out of the state, and left commodities, climate, economics and finance in place. The line the court drew is by subject, not by structure, and that is the part with consequences beyond Washington.
The two largest US prediction market venues moved on the same product on the same day, in opposite directions. Parlays are the sportsbook's highest-margin invention, and both of them reached the market by self-certification.
The CFTC convened its Innovation Advisory Committee for the first time and the prediction markets session turned into an argument between the chairman of the largest US derivatives exchange and the regulator. The number Terry Duffy brought was 2,500, and nobody disputed it.
The headline total barely moved on June. Underneath it, Kalshi added roughly a fifth to its volume while Polymarket's international book fell 26%, and the World Cup that drove the quarter ended on 19 July. August is the first clean read.
The Danish Gambling Authority took a telecoms company to court to get the blocking order, and Polymarket was on the list. The tax minister's objection was not to sports contracts but to markets on the deaths of public figures.