A platform that was paying CFTC fines and blocking US users just three years ago is now reportedly worth $15 billion. Polymarket's comeback is one of the most dramatic turnarounds in the prediction markets industry.
Washington's derivatives regulator has named the team that will help shape the future of prediction markets, cryptocurrency and AI regulation. The appointments signal where the CFTC's priorities lie.
From Robinhood's selective product choices to Europe's blanket bans, the prediction markets industry is facing a moment of reckoning over market integrity. The question is whether the sector can regulate itself before regulators do it for them.
Kalshi insists its products are financial instruments. State regulators insist they are bets. A Nevada judge has sided firmly with the regulators, and the fight is now playing out in courtrooms across the country.
Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes has filed 20 criminal misdemeanour charges against prediction market platform Kalshi, alleging it operated an unlicensed gambling business and accepted bets on state elections in violation of Arizona law, marking the first criminal prosecution of a prediction market company by any US state.
The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission has issued binding staff guidance and opened a formal advance rulemaking process on prediction markets, signalling a decisive shift under Chairman Mike Selig as event contracts surge from five per year in 2006 to roughly 1,600 certified contracts in 2025.
Israeli police are investigating a large Polymarket wager that correctly predicted a United States strike on Iran on 28 February, amid concerns about possible insider knowledge and renewed scrutiny of how prediction platforms handle high risk geopolitical markets.
A Nevada federal judge has remanded disputes involving Kalshi and Polymarket back to state court, a shift that clears the way for Nevada regulators to pursue rapid orders that could restrict prediction market contracts offered to residents.
DraftKings has reorganised parts of its workforce as it ramps up automation and scales its prediction market ambitions, with management and analysts pointing to cost alignment, AI driven decisioning, and infrastructure changes ahead of a major 2026 sports calendar.
Brazil’s securities regulator has authorised B3 to launch the country’s first regulated prediction market product for professional investors, positioning the initial yes or no contracts on the dollar, the Ibovespa, and bitcoin under capital markets oversight rather than the national betting framework.
The SEC is stepping up scrutiny of prediction markets and coordinating weekly with the CFTC, as Chairman Paul Atkins told senators that contract design and activity can trigger overlapping jurisdiction and shape how regulators ultimately classify these products.
The UK Gambling Commission has officially categorised prediction markets as gambling, requiring operators to secure a Betting Intermediary licence and warning that unlicensed firms targeting British punters face criminal prosecution.
