Prediction Markets · Page 2 of 14
Event contracts, the exchanges that list them, and the running dispute between federal derivatives regulation and state gambling law over who is in charge.
The Securities and Exchange Commission has cleared Cboe to list yes-or-no options that pay $1 on whether a company's reported figure, such as iPhone sales, clears a set level. They will trade as securities, not CFTC event contracts, with Robinhood lined up as the first broker, but there is no launch date until Cboe's clearing house is approved.
The Stockholm-listed slots supplier says the Malta Gaming Authority has extended its licence to peer-to-peer games, the class that covers poker and betting exchanges, so it can supply prediction markets to operators. A European gambling regulator is licensing as gaming a product that Washington proposed six days ago to define as a swap.
Google has added Connecticut to the US states where certified prediction markets may not advertise, the fifth exclusion since it opened the category in January, and has written a pointer to its prediction market rules into the main body of its gambling policy. Each of Google's notices has taken effect the day it was posted, and none gives a reason.
Underdog's exchange and brokerage arms filed a federal suit in Nashville on Tuesday against Tennessee's attorney general and the officials of its Sports Wagering Council, four days after a letter to "Mr. Levine". It is the seventh state Underdog has taken to court, and the first suit it has filed where a binding appeals ruling already rejects the argument it relies on.
Kalshi is reviewing three small trades that backed Katie Zacharia at 1 and 2 cents before Donald Trump named her White House press secretary. The exchange's own trade record shows the fills, and shows the price climbing to 45 cents before the time outlets give for the first reports.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has published the two rules it sent to the White House last month: one, in force the day it appears in the Federal Register, says a bet with a licensed sportsbook or casino is not a swap; the other proposes that event contracts, sports included, are. The line runs through who sells the product and where it trades, not what it is.
The senator whose name is on the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act and the CFTC chairman who implemented it have told the Supreme Court that Congress never moved sports betting from the states to the commodities regulator. The American Gaming Association, 145 tribes and tribal groups and Atlantic City's casinos filed too, and there is still nothing on the docket for Kalshi.
The tribe that holds Florida's sports betting monopoly wants a Broward County court to shut down DraftKings' prediction-market sports tab and its Pick6 game, and accuses chief executive Jason Robins personally of racketeering. It is suing under state law, in state court, where DraftKings' federal preemption defence has to be won rather than assumed.
Ohio has led 38 other states and the District of Columbia in urging the Supreme Court to take New Jersey's case against Kalshi, joined by the tribe behind the landmark 1987 tribal gaming ruling, the National Football League and three nonprofits that want the Court to revisit Murphy. Every brief on the docket backs New Jersey; Kalshi's response is due on 9 November.
Less than three weeks after the Tunica-Biloxi Tribe went first, four more tribal nations have launched Kalshi-backed prediction apps, CNN reports, one of them in northern California, inside the circuit that has just called Kalshi's sports contracts Class III gaming on tribal land. Only two of the four have been named, and the commercial terms have not been disclosed.
Connecticut's consumer protection chief says three of the nine prediction markets it ordered to stop sports contracts last month are leaving the state. None of the three has confirmed it publicly, and one industry analyst says ProphetX has not gone at all.
Coinbase will stop offering sports event contracts in Michigan, Kalshi's included, and close its customers' open positions at the same deadline, under an order a federal judge signed on 23 September. Michigan has promised not to prosecute while the appeals run; nobody has conceded the law.
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