Google Bars Prediction Market Ads in Connecticut, the Fifth US State It Has Shut Out

Google has added Connecticut to the US states where certified prediction markets may not advertise, the fifth exclusion since it opened the category in January, and has written a pointer to its prediction market rules into the main body of its gambling policy. Each of Google's notices has taken effect the day it was posted, and none gives a reason.

• Google prohibited advertising of prediction market contracts and related products in Connecticut from 7 October, according to a notice posted the same day, a month after the state ordered nine prediction markets to stop sports contracts
• Its Prediction Markets policy now lists the United States excluding Connecticut, Michigan, Nevada, New York and Ohio as the only approved target location
• Advertisers must be certified by Google and be either a Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) designated contract market whose primary business is listing event contracts, or a brokerage authorised by the National Futures Association (NFA) offering access to one
• Casino.org reported on 14 October that Google's gambling policy now carries dedicated prediction market guidance for the first time; archived copies show the US section has pointed to the separate policy since at least February, and that a second pointer in the policy's general section is new since 28 September
• The Connecticut notice went up on the day Google said it would open YouTube's Masthead to certified online gambling advertisers from 21 October

Google's Prediction Market Ad Map Has Shrunk Four Times in Nine Months

Google posted "Update to Prediction Markets (October 2026)" on 7 October. It says Google will update its prediction markets policy in the United States "to prohibit the advertisement of prediction markets contracts and related products ads in Connecticut", and that such advertising "is prohibited effective October 7, 2026". It gives no reason, does not mention Connecticut law and does not define "related products". PPC Land, which reported the notice first, found the main policy page had not been updated by 11 October. By 15 October it read: "United States (excluding Connecticut, Michigan, Nevada, New York, and Ohio)".

The category is nine months old. Google announced on 5 January that from 21 January it would permit ads for prediction markets in the United States, "but only for federally regulated entities". An archived copy of the policy page from 6 January lists the United States with no exceptions; a copy from 10 February excludes Nevada, and iGaming Times found no separate notice for that change. Ohio followed in a notice posted and effective on 2 June, and Michigan and New York in one posted and effective on 13 July. Connecticut is the fifth.

The policy opens by citing "the inherent complexities, speculative nature, and unique regulatory classification involved in trading Prediction Market contracts", wording present in the January copy. It requires an advertiser to hold "all applicable local financial, commodity, and/or gaming licenses", to comply with local law, to target an eligible location and to be certified by Google, with a separate application for each location. In the United States that means a CFTC-designated contract market whose primary business "must be the listing of Exchange-Listed Event Contracts", or a brokerage authorised by the NFA to offer access to such an exchange's products. Casino.org described the second route as Futures Commission Merchant registration; Google's text says brokerage. Google has not said how many advertisers hold the certification.

The policy also bars ads for binary options and other fixed-payout contracts on "the price movement of a financial asset", for markets on games of chance or lotteries, or anything legally defined as gambling and not permitted as a regulated prediction market under local law, and for sites that provide trading signals, tips or broker reviews, including affiliate sites. Ads with political or election content must also meet Google's political content policy, including election ads verification where it applies.

The Gambling Policy Points Both Ways

Google's January notice said references to the new policy would appear in its Financial Services and Gambling and games policies. An archived copy of the gambling policy from 16 February already carries one, at the end of the United States entry: "You may be able to run ads for Prediction Markets if you comply with the criteria and requirements detailed in the Prediction Markets policy." The current page repeats that sentence in its general section on online gambling, which the archived copy from 28 September does not. That addition is the change Casino.org reported as the first dedicated guidance; on Google's own record, the substance dates from January.

The five excluded states are all in open conflict with the industry. Connecticut's Department of Consumer Protection told nine platforms on 10 September to stop "advertising, offering, promoting, or otherwise making available" sports event contracts, and subpoenaed Google Play and Google Wallet among nearly 30 recipients; the state says three of the nine have since left. Ohio's regulator has ordered 10 prediction markets to stop sports contracts, with replies due by 16 October. A Michigan court's temporary order barring Kalshi from offering, advertising or facilitating internet sports betting in the state was due to run until about 13 July, the day Google's Michigan exclusion took effect. Nevada has beaten Kalshi in the Ninth Circuit, and New York has sued Kalshi and Polymarket.

Google Is Drawing Its Map From the States, Not the CFTC

The eligibility test is federal: a CFTC designation or an NFA authorisation gets an exchange through the door. The exclusions are state by state, and they track enforcement, not final judgments. The Supreme Court has not taken up the question, and the CFTC proposed on 9 October to define event contracts as swaps within its exclusive jurisdiction. Google has not waited for either. A company relying on federal pre-emption in court cannot buy Google ads in the states where it is making that argument, which is a practical concession to the states' position whatever the courts later decide. Same-day notices give advertisers no time to adjust, which on our reading points to legal exposure, not a scheduled policy review, as the trigger.

One Day Showed Both Halves of Google's Approach

On 7 October Google widened access for certified online gambling advertisers on YouTube and narrowed it for prediction markets in Connecticut. The two moves are consistent: both rest on a licence the targeted state recognises. Google's gambling policy lets state-licensed sportsbooks seek certification and target adults over 21 where they hold a licence, while in Connecticut the exchanges the state calls unlicensed now cannot advertise at all. The NFL keeps prediction market advertising out of its games for its own reasons, but the result for the exchanges is similar: the mainstream channels sportsbooks rely on are closing to them, one league and one state at a time.

Google's list now names five states and its notices give no reason for any of them. Ohio's 16 October deadline and the next cease-and-desist letter will show whether the list has a sixth.