Prediction Markets and Event Contracts

How prediction markets work, explained for the gambling industry rather than for traders. The course covers what an event contract is and why its price is a probability, how an exchange forms prices and earns fees without a house margin, the legal argument between federal derivatives law and state gambling law that is deciding who may offer contracts on sport, the integrity risks of resolution, manipulation and insider trading, a side-by-side comparison with a licensed sportsbook on price, limits, age, geography, tax and consumer protection, the distribution layer of brokerages, sportsbooks, leagues and media that carried the product to scale, and a decision framework for operators, exchanges, suppliers, regulators and investors.

Written for sportsbook and casino operators deciding whether to own, partner or abstain, for suppliers and affiliates whose licences are exposed by the answer, for regulators deciding what to protect, and for anyone who needs to explain the product to a board. It assumes you know how a sportsbook prices and settles.

The through-line is a question the course keeps open: is an event contract on a game a bet? The exchanges say no and hold a federal designation; the states say yes and hold the definition of gambling. The course teaches the argument and how to plan for both answers, rather than picking one.