Spain's Regulator Tells a Crypto Conference Prediction Markets Need a Licence

Spain's gambling regulator used a cryptocurrency conference to restate that a prediction market offering gambling needs a Spanish licence. It gave no update on the case opened against Polymarket and Kalshi in May, which the ministry expected to take three to four months.

• Mikel Arana, Director General of Spain's gambling regulator, the DGOJ, told a MERGE Madrid 2026 panel that platforms offering gambling under Spanish law must hold a Spanish licence, the regulator said on 30 October
• Unauthorised prediction markets in that category cannot lawfully operate in Spain, and measures are taken to block access to them, according to the DGOJ
• The release names no platform and gives no update on the sanctions proceedings opened against Polymarket and Kalshi in May
• Spain's Gambling Act already defines a cross bet, in which an operator intermediates stakes between third parties, and the ministry described prediction markets in those terms in May
• The release announces no new regulation and does not mention Spain's securities regulator

Spain's Regulator Takes Its Licensing Line to a Crypto Audience

The Dirección General de Ordenación del Juego (DGOJ), Spain's gambling regulator, set out its position on prediction markets at MERGE Madrid 2026, according to a release on 30 October. Director General Mikel Arana spoke on a panel titled "Visiones regulatorias sobre los Prediction Markets". The DGOJ, part of the Ministry of Social Rights, Consumer Affairs and Agenda 2030, describes the event as an international meeting on cryptocurrencies, blockchain and Web3 for regulators, financial institutions and digital-asset companies.

According to the release, the panel discussed which legal framework applies to prediction markets, given the products' characteristics and the rules in each jurisdiction. Arana explained that platforms offering products that constitute gambling activities under Spanish law must hold the corresponding licence to operate in Spain. Prediction markets in that category without authorisation therefore cannot lawfully offer their services in the country, and measures are taken to prevent access to them from Spain, the DGOJ said.

The release carries no direct quotation from Arana, does not mention the National Securities Market Commission (CNMV) and announces no new rules, saying only that the DGOJ remains committed to applying gambling regulation and adapting supervision to new business models.

The Polymarket and Kalshi Case Opened in May

On 26 May the ministry said it had opened sanctions proceedings against Polymarket and Kalshi for operating in Spain without the required authorisation, and ordered their websites blocked as a precautionary measure until a final resolution. Notice was served by publication in the Boletín Oficial del Estado (BOE) after attempts to notify the companies at their known addresses abroad failed, and the ministry estimated the procedure would take three to four months.

The DGOJ said then that Spain, in line with other European jurisdictions, treats prediction markets as games of chance when money is staked on uncertain future results, so they need a specific licence. The ministry said the format is also known as "apuestas cruzadas", or cross bets, and that unauthorised operators lack controls to keep out minors and self-excluded players.

Spanish Law Already Names the Exchange Model as Betting

Article 3 of the Gambling Act, Ley 13/2011, defines gambling as risking money or items of economic value on future, uncertain outcomes that depend to some degree on chance, whether or not skill predominates. It defines a cross bet as one in which an operator acts as intermediary and guarantor of amounts staked between third parties, taking a preset amount or percentage, and Article 2 covers cross-border operators serving Spanish residents. That matches the ministry's own May description of users trading with each other while the platform intermediates and charges commission. The case Polymarket has been putting in Brussels and London, that event contracts are finance, has to get past a statute that already names the peer-to-peer model as betting. Arana's reported wording covers products that "constitute gambling activities"; the release does not say what would fall outside.

The Message Was Chosen for the Room

A crypto audience is the one most inclined to call an outcome contract a financial product, and the DGOJ used it to restate that the gambling licence comes first. Spain is not alone: Italy's Customs and Monopolies Agency has blocked Polymarket twice, and France's Autorité Nationale des Jeux (ANJ) pushed the operator into geo-blocking French users from December 2024. Italy's experience, with access restored between the two blocks, shows the limit: a regulator controls the domestic route in, not the offshore platform.

The Enforcement Case Has Run Past Its Own Timetable

More than five months on, the ministry's three-to-four-month estimate has elapsed, and the 30 October release does not say whether a resolution has been issued. Licensed operators, meanwhile, face a growing list of DGOJ obligations, including a cross-operator deposit limit binding from March 2027. For channelisation, the licensing line protects licensees only if unlicensed platforms face a visible outcome, and a block without a concluded sanction is a weaker signal than a final decision.

Spain has said plainly that a prediction market offering gambling needs a Spanish licence, and it said so to the audience most likely to argue otherwise. What it has not yet shown publicly is how the case against the two platforms it named in May ends.