How a sportsbook price is actually made, and how a quantitative desk knows whether it is right. The course covers odds as probabilities and why removing the margin is a modelling choice, rating models and scoring-process models and the corrections that make them usable, the market as a model and closing line value, calibration and proper scoring rules, in-play pricing with hazard rates and the latency and suspension problem, correlation and the simulation engines behind bet builders, and the risk layer that turns prices into money: limits as a function of edge, event-level liability, customer pricing, model monitoring and backtesting discipline.
Written for traders, quants and product people who already know how a sportsbook works and want to build or run the pricing engine. It assumes comfort with probability and a willingness to read a formula.
The through-line: pricing is a system. Probability from models and the market, checked by calibration, kept coherent across markets and in-play, and turned into margin by limits and customer management that reflect where the edge actually is.
Lessons
- 01
Odds as Probabilities, and Where the Margin Goes
16 min
- 02
Rating Models and Scoring-Process Models
18 min
- 03
The Market as a Model: Closing Lines, Calibration and Scoring
18 min
- 04
In-Play Pricing: State, Hazard Rates and Latency
18 min
- 05
Correlation, Same-Game Parlays and Simulation
18 min
- 06
Limits, Liability, Customer Pricing and Model Monitoring
20 min