Prediction Markets
Event contracts, the exchanges that list them, and the running dispute between federal derivatives regulation and state gambling law over who is in charge.
Nevada's gaming regulator wants KalshiEX held in contempt, and hit with penalties of up to $120,000 a day, for letting people inside the state trade event contracts a court told it to block. The twist: federal judges have just ruled the opposite way, leaving the same product protected in one forum and prosecuted in another.
Polymarket has reportedly removed the waitlist on its US iOS app, opening its prediction-market exchange to general American users for the first time since 2022. The comeback rests on its $112 million QCEX acquisition and a CFTC no-action letter, and it sharpens an already intense rivalry with market leader Kalshi.
The most consequential US gambling story of the year has just unfolded inside one company. Amy Howe is out at FanDuel, the sportsbook is bleeding customers and Flutter is betting nine figures on prediction markets to fix it.
Four years after being forced out of the American market, Polymarket is reportedly in discussions with the CFTC about a full domestic return. The timing could not be more politically charged.
The CFTC is no longer just defending prediction markets in court. It is now going on the offensive against the states trying to shut them down. New York is the latest target in a rapidly expanding federal legal campaign.
New York's Attorney General is calling prediction markets what she says they really are: illegal gambling. The lawsuits against two of crypto's biggest names mark a significant escalation in the state versus federal battle over who controls this fast-growing sector.
A platform that was paying CFTC fines and blocking US users just three years ago is now reportedly worth $15 billion. Polymarket's comeback is one of the most dramatic turnarounds in the prediction markets industry.
Washington's derivatives regulator has named the team that will help shape the future of prediction markets, cryptocurrency and AI regulation. The appointments signal where the CFTC's priorities lie.
From Robinhood's selective product choices to Europe's blanket bans, the prediction markets industry is facing a moment of reckoning over market integrity. The question is whether the sector can regulate itself before regulators do it for them.
Kalshi insists its products are financial instruments. State regulators insist they are bets. A Nevada judge has sided firmly with the regulators, and the fight is now playing out in courtrooms across the country.
Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes has filed 20 criminal misdemeanour charges against prediction market platform Kalshi, alleging it operated an unlicensed gambling business and accepted bets on state elections in violation of Arizona law, marking the first criminal prosecution of a prediction market company by any US state.
The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission has issued binding staff guidance and opened a formal advance rulemaking process on prediction markets, signalling a decisive shift under Chairman Mike Selig as event contracts surge from five per year in 2006 to roughly 1,600 certified contracts in 2025.