Prediction Markets · Page 5 of 14
Event contracts, the exchanges that list them, and the running dispute between federal derivatives regulation and state gambling law over who is in charge.
A King County judge has refused to revisit the injunction that keeps Kalshi's sports, election and entertainment contracts out of Washington, rejecting the argument that rivals are still operating there. In the same week Kalshi asked for 30 more days on New Jersey's Supreme Court petition and Montana agreed to stand down until the Ninth Circuit rules en banc.
The letters Catherine Hanaway promised on Wednesday went out to Polymarket, Kalshi, Crypto.com, Novig, Underdog and Robinhood, dated 16 and 17 September. Five of the six are told to stop serving under-21s. The licensed sportsbooks' own exchange products are not on the list, and Kentucky, she says, is close to a settlement.
Two days after the Ninth Circuit told two California tribes that Kalshi's sports contracts are Class III gaming on their land, the Tunica-Biloxi Tribe formed SaltTrade Derivatives to route trades through Kalshi's exchange. The tribal gaming lobby called it "profoundly disappointing"; Kalshi's chief executive called on other tribes to follow.
A processor was rejecting more than 80% of Polymarket's US deposits as fraudulent in February, the compliance chief resigned after writing it up, and the chief executive told staff to keep growing and pay any fine later, the Journal reports. The CFTC is investigating, and the company is raising $1 billion.
A Pennsylvania county wants prediction-market trading written into the oath its election workers swear, and Maryland's chief administrator plans to ask for the same statewide, the Associated Press reports. With the courts unlikely to rule before November, the workers are the one thing the states can still regulate.
Catherine Hanaway says sports contracts "fit four square the definition of gambling in Missouri", that they siphon money from sportsbooks that pay the state's tax, and that what she wants is an agreement putting the exchanges under Missouri gaming law and taxing them. If there is no agreement she will sue; she expects them to sue her first.
A concrete recycler's tower beside I-94 has been painted Polymarket blue and lettered with the platform's name. The city says adverts on water towers need a permit, there is none on file, and its buildings department is sending an inspector out with a "possible correction order". The stunt lands in the one state where Polymarket has already lost in federal court and its rival Kalshi is under a state injunction.
Police data supplied to a National Assembly member show the Gangwon provincial cyber unit has booked 26 users of the blocked platform for gambling under Article 246 of the Criminal Act and referred 18 of them for prosecution. One trader alone put about KRW 5.7bn through the site. The defendants say a yes-or-no contract settled on a blockchain is a derivative, not a bet, and the courts have not yet been asked.
The 9 September order from the Department of Consumer Protection told Underdog to stop advertising and offering sports event contracts and to let residents withdraw. Underdog's answer, filed in federal court on Tuesday, is the same one it gave Ohio, Massachusetts, Wisconsin, New Mexico and Washington: the CFTC has "exclusive jurisdiction" over a designated contract market, so the state's action is "meritless".
The site compares equivalent contracts across Kalshi, Polymarket, Novig, Underdog, FanDuel Predicts, Fanatics and five others, with a cross-venue engine for multi-leg positions and Genius's live game data underneath. It runs on Legend, the media business whose $1.2bn purchase in February sank the shares. Mark Locke says most prediction-market demand "appears new".
The Gaming Supervisory Authority opened an account, funded it and bet on sports results, then took the evidence to the Vilnius Regional Administrative Court. Internet providers must block the site and payment firms must stop dealing with Adventure One QSS. It is the first prediction market Lithuania has treated as an unlicensed bookmaker, and the 2,204th site it has blocked.
The Ohio Casino Control Commission's June resignation letter surfaced at a Massachusetts Gaming Commission meeting last week, where commissioners decided to stay "for now". The national problem-gambling body says taking Kalshi's money is not an endorsement. Three state bodies have decided it is.
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