Prediction Markets · Page 6 of 14
Event contracts, the exchanges that list them, and the running dispute between federal derivatives regulation and state gambling law over who is in charge.
A second unanimous panel in three weeks has ruled against the exchange, this time for two California tribes under the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act. The court held that IGRA and the Commodity Exchange Act "simply address two different questions", and sent the case back for an injunction. Lawyers on the tribal side are already talking about geofencing reservations.
Judge Lorna Schofield heard the commission argue that the Commodity Exchange Act pre-empts New York's $3.4 billion gambling case against Coinbase and Gemini, and pressed its lawyers on why she should enjoin the state when other federal courts have declined to. She did not rule from the bench.
A state that bans sports betting and casinos spent Tuesday studying "the sudden inundation of prediction market gambling". The casino lobby told senators to sue in state court; Kalshi told them a ban would send Texans offshore. The session that could act on it opens on 12 January.
For eight months the league's policy rested on one anonymously sourced report. Now its communications director has spelled it out: no prediction market advertising in games, stadiums, club deals or player endorsements, and sportsbook partners may only advertise an approved product, not the company.
Cloture on the crypto market-structure bill needed 60 votes and got 49, all Republican. Four Republicans voted no, tribal gaming is calling it a victory for sovereignty, and the argument over who regulates sports event contracts goes back to the courts and the CFTC.
Nevada's win against sports event contracts is stayed while the full court decides whether to rehear it, so Arizona, Montana and California cannot enforce, Nevada and Washington do so through state courts, and the Supreme Court's conference is on 28 September.
Five months after the Finance Ministry ordered the site blocked, its markets on the October election are still reachable and a Portuguese-language account is promoting a candidate's lead among bettors. The AGU has asked for the file.
Two consecutive daily records, parlays over half of everything, a $56m Cowboys-Giants market and pricing that Citizens says beat FanDuel and DraftKings on straight bets. The volume figure counts both sides of every trade.
The federal regulator moved for a preliminary injunction on 11 September, with Robinhood pressing to join the case and Crypto.com taking the Nevada question to the Supreme Court. Connecticut's responses are due on 2 October.
The EU securities regulator's risk report finds the biggest platforms hold no EU authorisation, that binary-option rules bar retail sale where contracts are derivatives, and that platform surveillance arrives only after the profits are banked.
Polymarket, Coinbase, Robinhood and six others have been told to cease and let residents withdraw their money, while PayPal, Sportradar, Genius Sports, ESPN, Apple and Google have been subpoenaed for what they know.
Federal prosecutors are said to be preparing a case alleging that an accountant used confidential audit data to win 41 of 42 earnings bets on Polymarket. It would be the first insider trading case built on a prediction market.
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