Prediction Markets
Event contracts, the exchanges that list them, and the running dispute between federal derivatives regulation and state gambling law over who is in charge.
Israeli police are investigating a large Polymarket wager that correctly predicted a United States strike on Iran on 28 February, amid concerns about possible insider knowledge and renewed scrutiny of how prediction platforms handle high risk geopolitical markets.
A Nevada federal judge has remanded disputes involving Kalshi and Polymarket back to state court, a shift that clears the way for Nevada regulators to pursue rapid orders that could restrict prediction market contracts offered to residents.
DraftKings has reorganised parts of its workforce as it ramps up automation and scales its prediction market ambitions, with management and analysts pointing to cost alignment, AI driven decisioning, and infrastructure changes ahead of a major 2026 sports calendar.
Brazil’s securities regulator has authorised B3 to launch the country’s first regulated prediction market product for professional investors, positioning the initial yes or no contracts on the dollar, the Ibovespa, and bitcoin under capital markets oversight rather than the national betting framework.
The SEC is stepping up scrutiny of prediction markets and coordinating weekly with the CFTC, as Chairman Paul Atkins told senators that contract design and activity can trigger overlapping jurisdiction and shape how regulators ultimately classify these products.
The UK Gambling Commission has officially categorised prediction markets as gambling, requiring operators to secure a Betting Intermediary licence and warning that unlicensed firms targeting British punters face criminal prosecution.
A Massachusetts judge has granted a preliminary injunction against prediction market Kalshi, prohibiting the platform from offering sports related contracts to residents without a state licence. The ruling, which follows a lawsuit by Attorney General Andrea Joy Campbell, marks the first successful state level block of the company’s sports business and challenges its claim that federal CFTC regulation preempts local gambling laws.
Bryson DeChambeau has made history as the first individual athlete to represent Kalshi, marking a significant crossover between the world of elite golf and the rapidly expanding prediction market sector.
Tennessee regulators have issued a stern ultimatum to Kalshi and Polymarket demanding an immediate halt to all sports wagering activities within the state. The move follows allegations that these platforms are bypassing local gambling laws by offering unlicensed sports event contracts to residents. Companies have until the end of January to refund all customer deposits or face heavy fines and potential criminal investigation.
Dow Jones has signed an exclusive deal to integrate Polymarket's prediction data into The Wall Street Journal and MarketWatch, signalling a major shift in how financial news utilises betting odds to gauge future events.
A Polymarket trader turned $30,000 into $436,000 by betting on President Maduro's capture days before it happened, sparking debate over whether prediction markets incentivise insider trading on military conflicts.
Kalshi has abandoned plans to launch prediction markets on college athlete transfers after the NCAA condemned the move as a threat to student safety.