Brazil's Attorney General Weighs Action Against Polymarket Over Election Markets

Five months after the Finance Ministry ordered the site blocked, its markets on the October election are still reachable and a Portuguese-language account is promoting a candidate's lead among bettors. The AGU has asked for the file.

• The Advocacia-Geral da União (AGU) has begun examining Polymarket over the hosting of bets on Brazil's elections and has not ruled out formal action, its press office told JOTA, whose report BNLData carries
• The AGU has asked the Finance Ministry for the factual and legal basis, including any oversight or sanctioning proceedings against Polymarket and its partners and any blocking orders sent to Anatel or the platform
• The electoral court (TSE) and the telecoms regulator Anatel have received complaints; the TSE shared its material with the AGU
• The Secretariat of Prizes and Betting blocked Polymarket and more than 20 prediction market sites just over five months ago, but the site still hosts markets on the election result from servers abroad, is reachable by VPN and partly visible without one
• The Finance Ministry says the block stands, that compliance depends on more than 20,000 telecoms providers, and that even where a page opens "it is not possible to place bets or make deposits"

The Block Held on Paper and the Markets Kept Trading

Brazil's federal legal service is considering whether the state should move against Polymarket directly, after the administrative block on the platform proved porous in the run-up to a presidential election.

The AGU has started to study Polymarket's situation over the potential hosting and operation of bets linked to Brazilian elections, JOTA reported, in a story carried by BNLData. A formal measure is not ruled out; the AGU is waiting for information from the Finance Ministry in order, according to its press office, to "evaluate any applicable measures". The Tribunal Superior Eleitoral and Anatel have already received complaints, the TSE has shared its material with the AGU, and both the AGU and Anatel are in contact with the Finance Ministry.

Access to Polymarket in Brazil was blocked a little over five months ago on a decision by the Secretariat of Prizes and Betting (SPA), which concluded that only the regulated betting segment, such as sports events, is permitted in the country and that prediction market platforms, on which users bet against each other on future events, were prohibited outright. More than 20 sites were blocked at the time.

Even so, Polymarket has continued to host bets on the outcome of the Brazilian elections from servers abroad. The site can be reached through a VPN, and JOTA found that in basic configurations in some states it is accessible without one, showing the percentages for certain scenarios but not the betting mechanism; the app opens but cannot place bets. A Portuguese-language Polymarket profile on social media has published content promoting not only the platform but the lead of the candidate Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) among bettors, according to the outlet Núcleo.

What the AGU Asked For, and What the Ministry Said

To support any action, the AGU has asked the Finance Ministry for factual and legal input: access to any oversight or sanctioning proceedings opened or concluded against Polymarket and its partners, and to any administrative orders for notification, suspension or blocking already sent to Anatel or directly to the platform. The Finance Ministry, through the SPA, is the body responsible for regulating, monitoring and supervising the sector.

The ministry's response, as reported, was that "Polymarket is blocked in Brazil, as are the social networks linked to the platform" and that "the possible access to the site by some users does not mean that the company is authorised to operate in the country nor that the blocking measures have ceased to be adopted". The block was sent to Anatel, which is responsible for notifying more than 20,000 telecoms providers to implement it; "as compliance depends on each provider, an address may be unavailable at different times". The ministry added that "even when the page can still be opened, it is not possible to place bets or make deposits", and that it monitors the effectiveness of the restrictions permanently, "adopting new measures whenever necessary". Part of the debate had been whether prediction platforms could be treated as derivatives; the National Monetary Council settled it with a rule permitting only derivatives whose underlying is an economic or financial reference such as price indices, interest rates, exchange rates or commodities. Election results are not on the list. Polymarket had not responded by the time of publication.

A Block That Depends on 20,000 Providers Is a Policy, Not an Enforcement

The ministry's statement is honest about the mechanism and that is the problem with it. An administrative block is a request to every ISP in the country, executed at different times by different companies and defeated by a VPN, and the SPA's own defence is that the site cannot take deposits from Brazil, not that Brazilians cannot see it. For a sports-betting operator that might be enough. For election markets it is not, because the harm the electoral court is worried about is not lost stakes but a visible probability being circulated as news three weeks before the vote, by an account that names a candidate. Polymarket does not need a Brazilian deposit to publish a Brazilian number. The AGU's interest signals that the state has understood the difference between stopping the wagering and stopping the market, and that the second requires something other than an ISP list.

The Same Fortnight, Three Continents, One Product

ESMA said last week that the largest prediction platforms hold no EU authorisation and that their surveillance arrives after profits are realised; Connecticut ordered Polymarket and eight others to stop sports contracts and gave residents their money back; Brazil is now asking whether a blocked platform that still hosts its election is a matter for the federal legal service. The company is raising $1 billion at a $21 billion valuation on the premise that it is becoming financial infrastructure, and Brazil has in fact licensed a domestic prediction market on the B3 exchange for professionals. The line Brazil is drawing is not against the product but against unlicensed operators pricing its election from offshore. Whether the AGU files, and what a Brazilian court can do to an Estonian-registered exchange with no local presence, will show how far that line can be enforced.

Brazil blocked Polymarket in April. In September its election is still trading there, and the state's lawyers have noticed.