Regulatory
Certiorari
Reviewed by iGaming Times editorial teamLast reviewed 16 October 2026
What is Certiorari?
The discretionary process by which the United States Supreme Court agrees to review a lower court decision. A party files a petition for a writ of certiorari, and the court grants very few.
Key takeaways
- Certiorari is the discretionary process by which the US Supreme Court chooses which lower court decisions to review.
- The court grants very few petitions, and a denial sets no precedent; it simply leaves the lower court's decision in place.
- A split between federal circuits is a classic reason to grant review, which is why the prediction market preemption dispute is heading there.
Why it matters
Certiorari is where the prediction market question is most likely to be settled nationally. Federal appellate courts have produced conflicting decisions on whether the Commodity Exchange Act displaces state gambling law: the Third Circuit sided with Kalshi in April 2026, while the Ninth and Sixth Circuits ruled for the states, and a split between circuits is the classic reason for the Supreme Court to take a case. New Jersey petitioned on 2 September 2026 in Flaherty v. KalshiEX, No. 26-299, and Robinhood followed in Robinhood Derivatives v. Dreitzer, No. 26-338; the federal preemption entry sets out where the litigation stands.
The odds against any individual petition are long. The court receives thousands each term and grants a small fraction, so a denial is not a ruling on the merits and creates no precedent; it simply leaves the decision below in place for that circuit. That produces the patchwork familiar in American gambling law, where the same product is lawful in one region and not in another.
Deadlines are strict but extendable, and parties frequently seek additional time, which is why a case can sit at this stage for months without any substantive development.
The bottom line
Certiorari is a request for attention, not an appeal as of right. A denial settles nothing except that the losing party has run out of court.
Sources
- Supreme Court Rule 10: Considerations Governing Review on Certiorari - Legal Information Institute, Cornell Law School
- Docket No. 26-299: Flaherty v. KalshiEX, LLC - Supreme Court of the United States
- Docket No. 26-338: Robinhood Derivatives, LLC v. Dreitzer - Supreme Court of the United States
Certiorari elsewhere on iGaming Times
In the news
Frequently asked questions
What does certiorari mean?
Certiorari is the process by which a party asks the US Supreme Court to review a lower court's decision, by filing a petition for a writ of certiorari. Review is not a matter of right but of the court's discretion, and under its Rule 10 the court grants petitions only for compelling reasons, such as a conflict between federal courts of appeals on an important question.
What happens if certiorari is denied?
A denial is not a ruling on the merits and creates no precedent. It simply leaves the lower court's decision in place, binding within that circuit. Where circuits disagree, that can leave the same product lawful in one region of the country and unlawful in another until the Supreme Court takes a case on the question.
Why does certiorari matter for prediction markets?
In 2026 the Third Circuit sided with Kalshi on whether the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gambling law for sports event contracts, while the Ninth and Sixth Circuits ruled for the states. That circuit split led to petitions for certiorari from New Jersey (Flaherty v. KalshiEX, No. 26-299) and Robinhood (Robinhood Derivatives v. Dreitzer, No. 26-338). If the court grants review, its decision would settle the question nationally.