Macau's September Splits the Banks: HSBC Sees a Q3 Fall, Consensus Still Up 7%

Premium volumes have dropped since August, HSBC and UBS both put the first 13 days flat year on year, and CLSA has cut 2027 by 4% with catalysts "not imminent". A week ago Citigroup called September up 12%.

• HSBC says Macau gross gaming revenue is tracking a 3% to 5% decline in the third quarter against its own forecast of 2% growth, with September at MOP17.6 billion to MOP18.8 billion, a range from 4% down to 3% up, Asia Gaming Brief reports
• HSBC and UBS both estimate about MOP7.9 billion for the first 13 days of September, flat year on year and 14% below August on a daily basis; UBS says consensus still expects September growth of 7% to 10%
• Mass daily revenue is estimated down 12% to 15% month on month and VIP rolling volume down 15% to 18%, with the VIP win rate above normal at 3.1% to 3.4%
• CLSA has cut its 2027 GGR forecast by 4% to MOP259.2 billion and 2028 by 3% to MOP270.4 billion, citing a lack of supportive macro indicators, and says catalysts for stronger growth "do not appear to be imminent"
• Second-quarter sector EBITDA fell 10.7% to $1.81 billion with the margin down to 24.2% from 26.8%, as costs rose 2% and GGR slipped 0.1%, according to CLSA

Two Weeks Into September, the Forecasts Point in Opposite Directions

Macau's September was supposed to be easy. Last year's typhoon closures gave the month a low comparison base, and Citigroup's channel checks a week ago pointed to growth of around 12%. The bank notes published on 15 September describe a different month.

HSBC now says third-quarter gross gaming revenue is tracking a year-on-year decline of 3% to 5%, below its existing forecast of 2% growth, on weaker premium-player volumes in early September, Asia Gaming Brief reports. For the month, HSBC expects GGR of MOP17.6 billion to MOP18.8 billion, between 4% below and 3% above September 2025. UBS, in a separate report, says market consensus remains for growth of about 7% to 10%. Both banks estimate GGR at roughly MOP7.9 billion for the first 13 days, broadly flat year on year but 14% below August on a daily average basis.

"The slowdown appears driven by lower volume from premium players," UBS wrote on 14 September. Mass-market daily revenue is estimated to have fallen 12% to 15% month on month and VIP rolling volume by 15% to 18%; HSBC says the VIP win rate has stayed above normal at 3.1% to 3.4%, which flatters revenue relative to volume. HSBC describes the month as "broadly in line with the usual seasonal pattern" and notes that August was a relatively low base and that last September's typhoon closures should help the comparison; UBS counters that the month-to-date sequential decline is steeper than the average seasonal fall recorded between 2015 and 2019. UBS's forward-booking survey of 31 hotels for the 1 to 7 October Golden Week found one fewer property sold out than a year earlier, with comparable room prices 19% higher.

CLSA Cuts 2027 and Explains Why the Margin Is Not Coming Back

CLSA's report of 15 September takes the longer view and lowers it. The brokerage cut its 2027 GGR forecast by 4% to MOP259.2 billion, growth of 2.4%, and its 2028 forecast by 3% to MOP270.4 billion, growth of 4.3%, saying it had "not seen enough supportive macro indicators". It kept 2026 broadly unchanged at MOP253.2 billion, raised September to MOP18.6 billion, up 1.7% on the typhoon comparison, and expects the fourth quarter to fall 0.8% to MOP65.5 billion against an unusually high VIP win rate a year earlier. Growth in 2027, it says, will come mainly from visitation, helped by easier June and July comparisons and a stronger renminbi, with GGR per visitor broadly stable; catalysts for a stronger phase "do not appear to be imminent".

The cost side is the reason for the caution. In the second quarter of 2026, property-level operating expenses excluding depreciation rose 2% while market-wide GGR fell 0.1%; reported EBITDA across the sector fell 10.7% to $1.81 billion, 2% below CLSA's estimate, and EBITDA as a share of GGR contracted to 24.2% from 26.8%. Operating cost pressure "does not dissipate easily", CLSA says, pointing to the annual salary increases the six concessionaires have announced since 2024, and margin expansion will be difficult if GGR grows only at a low single-digit rate. The brokerage also flags a Chinese upstream indicator it uses for premium play: the spread between the producer price index and the purchasing price index has been negative since February and widened to 3.31 points in August, and it says the measure has led Macau GGR by about six months since 2005.

The Premium Segment Is the Swing Factor, and It Is Swinging Down

Every bank agrees on the base-rate arithmetic: September 2025 was depressed by typhoon closures, so almost any normal month should show growth. The disagreement is about whether this is a normal month, and the volume data say it is not. A 15% to 18% fall in VIP rolling and a 12% to 15% fall in mass daily revenue from August is a steeper drop than the seasonal norm, and it is concentrated in the premium players that yesterday's Gaming Sector Survey showed the concessionaires spending 11.6% more in commissions and rebates to attract. If premium volume is softening while the cost of chasing it is rising, CLSA's margin warning is not a 2027 story but a current one, and an above-normal VIP win rate is temporarily hiding it in the revenue line.

Consensus at Plus 7% to 10% Has Two Weeks to Be Wrong

Citigroup's 12% and the consensus 7% to 10% are not yet contradicted; a strong second half of the month can still deliver them, and HSBC's own range includes growth. But the run rate through 13 September is flat, and flat against a typhoon-hit base is weak. The market will get the DICJ's monthly figure on 1 October and Golden Week immediately after, and the hotel survey's 19% higher room rates with one fewer sell-out suggests the operators are pricing for margin rather than volume into the holiday. That is the correct response to CLSA's cost analysis and the wrong one if HSBC's premium slowdown persists. Either way, the easy comparison Macau was promised for September has turned into a test of whether its 2025 recovery had a premium-player engine or a premium-player subsidy.

Macau's analysts have the same 13 days of data and have reached opposite conclusions about them. The DICJ settles it in two weeks.