Brazil's Clubs and Bookmakers Mobilise as Lula's Decree Nears, Casino Ban Likely

UOL reports the provisional measure would ban online games outright and restrict sports betting, with insiders treating it as "close to the extinction" of online casino. Clubs put R$1bn of sponsorship at risk and are drafting a note calling it electioneering; operators are weighing a court challenge; two associations have published open letters. The president says new measures come "soon".

• The federal government intends to publish a provisional measure "in the coming days" that would prohibit online games broadly and impose new restrictions on sports betting, whose scope is still being decided, UOL reported on 16 September; members of the government describe it internally as close to the extinction of online games, though the final text may change
• Football clubs estimate they could lose about R$1bn in sponsorship revenue; Flamengo, Corinthians, Palmeiras and São Paulo each hold annual betting deals worth more than R$100m and are discussing a joint position and a note describing the initiative as electoral, iGaming Brazil and Diário do Centro do Mundo report
• Licensed operators are considering a court challenge to any measure on the grounds that a ban would expand the illegal market, which pays no tax and observes no responsible-gambling rules
• ABRAJOGO said Brazil "is not facing an activity without law" but "an entertainment industry that the State itself decided to regulate, authorise and supervise", and that "if there are flaws, let them be corrected"; AMIG, which represents about 1,500 women in the sector, said the threat is to "jobs, careers, income, taxes and the economic autonomy of thousands of women"
• "Bets are not a game. They are inducement to addiction," President Lula wrote on X on 15 September. "We are taking decisions and, soon, we will announce new measures to confront this problem and protect the Brazilian people"

The Shape of the Measure, as Far as It Is Known

Brazil's government is close to publishing the provisional measure on betting that has been discussed in Brasília since early September, and the reported design is harsher than the version first floated. UOL reported on Tuesday evening that the draft distinguishes online games, which would face a broad prohibition, from sports betting, where the government is still weighing how far restrictions should go, with tighter advertising rules among the options. Government members treat the measure internally as something close to the extinction of online games in Brazil, UOL reports, while cautioning that the wording could still change under pressure. The intention is to publish it within days.

A provisional measure takes legal effect on publication and must be confirmed by Congress within 120 days. That is the reason the Planalto chose the instrument over a bill, which sources told CNN Brasil earlier this month would face resistance in Congress. The Ministry of Finance, whose Secretariat of Prizes and Bets regulates the 85 licensed operators, has argued inside the government for softer measures aimed at illegal platforms rather than prohibition, Focus Gaming News Brasil reported.

The president has left little doubt about his own preference. "Bets are not a game. They are inducement to addiction," he wrote on X on 15 September, two days after meeting families affected by gambling addiction and calling it "a disease, not a game". "The Brazilian State will not close its eyes to the suffering of these people and their families. We are taking decisions and, soon, we will announce new measures to confront this problem and protect the Brazilian people." On a podcast the following day he said his "personal disposition is to end the bets" while acknowledging he could not act abruptly.

The Clubs, the Operators and Two Open Letters

The reaction has come first from football. Clubs estimate that a ban or severe restriction would cost Brazilian football about R$1bn in sponsorship, iGaming Brazil reports, and Flamengo, Corinthians, Palmeiras and São Paulo each hold annual agreements with betting companies worth more than R$100m, according to Diário do Centro do Mundo's account of the UOL report. The clubs are discussing a joint position and a note describing the initiative as electoral and as the product of the government's inability to confront the illegal market. Licensed operators, who served a presidential candidate with a demand to retract this week, are weighing a court challenge to any measure, arguing that restrictions would benefit unlicensed platforms that pay no tax and apply no responsible-gambling rules.

Two associations have published statements. ABRAJOGO, the Brazilian Association of International Gaming Operators and Providers, said the country "is not facing an activity without law. It is facing an entertainment industry that the State itself decided to regulate, authorise and supervise. Companies met the requirements set by the public authorities, made investments and began operating within a system created to allow control, supervision and accountability. Any discussion about the future of fixed-quota betting needs to start from that reality." The regulated and illegal markets "cannot be treated as if they were the same thing", it said, and weakening the regulated environment "may, on the contrary, expand the space occupied by clandestine platforms". "If there are flaws, let them be corrected. If the rules need to evolve, let them be improved. And if there are illegal operators, let them be fought rigorously."

AMIG, the Association of Women in the Gaming Industry, expressed "deep concern and repudiation of public statements defending the closure or prohibition of gaming and betting companies operating legally in Brazil". The association says it has about 1,500 members and that roughly 10,000 women work in the sector, in technology, compliance, legal, anti-money laundering, responsible gambling, customer service, payments, information security, marketing and government relations. "When the regulated sector is threatened indiscriminately, it is not an abstraction that is threatened. Jobs, careers, income, taxes and the economic autonomy of thousands of women are threatened."

"Extinction" Is a Word the Government Chose to Let Out

Reports of a provisional measure have circulated for ten days, and each version has been harder than the last: restrictions, then a possible casino ban, now a broad prohibition on online games that officials themselves describe as close to extinction. Governments leak in the direction they intend to move. The sports-betting half remains undecided because that is where the clubs, the broadcasters and 14 of 20 Série A sponsors live, and where the electoral cost of a ban is highest. Online casino, the "Tigrinho" games that dominate the president's examples, has no such constituency. The measure is being shaped to remove the product with no defenders and negotiate over the one with many.

The Clubs Are the Only Lobby With Voters

Bookmakers' warnings about the illegal market are correct and have been made for a year without moving the president. The clubs' warning is different in kind: R$1bn of sponsorship is the training grounds, the wage bills and the transfer budgets of the teams most Brazilians support, in a season that runs through the election. A note calling the measure "electoral" is itself electoral, and it will be read by the same voters the campaign is courting with videos of addiction victims. If sports betting escapes the harshest version of the decree, the credit will belong to the clubs, not to the trade associations.

The Ministry of Finance Lost the Argument and Will Have to Administer the Result

The Secretariat of Prizes and Bets built the licensing regime, collected R$8.7bn in federal tax in seven months, and this week gave banks 24 hours to freeze illegal operators' accounts. It argued for enforcement over prohibition and, on UOL's account, lost. It will now be asked to implement a measure it advised against, while 85 licensees decide whether to sue the state that licensed them. The 120-day confirmation window in Congress is where that fight moves next, and the clubs will be there before the operators.

Brazil is about to find out whether a market can be regulated in January 2025 and abolished by decree in September. The clubs are betting it cannot. The president has said he will decide soon.