S&P: DigiPlus Will Keep Half the Philippine Online Market; the State Is the Risk

The ratings agency expects the operator to hold 40% to 50% of legal online gaming for two years, with the second player at 15% to 20%. It also says the risk of regulatory intervention is "higher in the Philippines than other jurisdictions", cites the e-wallet delinking that cut DigiPlus revenue 23% in a quarter, and flags Senate bills that could ban the product outright. The central bank added a new one today.

• "DigiPlus will likely maintain its dominant 40%-50% share of the Philippine online gaming market over the next two years," S&P Global said in a note published on 16 September, as reported by Next.io; "the company has a big lead over the second-largest player, which has a 15%-20% market share"
• The agency credits an in-house development team building products "that suit local tastes", a user base "comprising mainly lower to middle-income gamers", and engagement built through app interfaces and physical sites over three to four years
• It also says "the risk of regulatory intervention is higher in the Philippines than other jurisdictions", citing a market legalised only in 2020, the August 2025 order delinking e-wallets from gambling sites that cut DigiPlus's revenue 23% quarter on quarter in the third quarter of 2025, and "several Senate bills" that could tighten player protection "or even totally ban online gaming"
• Low barriers to entry mean "new entrants could include illegal operators with sizable market shares", S&P said, while lower online tax rates since 2023, stricter enforcement and a proposed minimum fee for licensees could push players to regulated incumbents and drive out smaller operators
• Asia Gaming Brief reports the same note warns that marketing costs threaten to absorb DigiPlus's tax savings; the central bank said on the same day it would tighten merchant screening after finding 8,000 disguised casino merchant accounts

A Dominant Position in a Market That Keeps Changing the Rules

S&P Global expects DigiPlus Interactive to remain the largest online gambling operator in the Philippines for at least two years, according to a note published on Tuesday and reported by Next.io and Asia Gaming Brief. "DigiPlus will likely maintain its dominant 40%-50% share of the Philippine online gaming market over the next two years," the agency wrote. "The company has a big lead over the second-largest player, which has a 15%-20% market share. It benefits from a large user base comprising mainly lower to middle-income gamers." The operator accounts for roughly half of all legal bets placed in the country, Next.io reports, and S&P expects its in-house development team to keep producing speciality gaming products and entertainment features suited to local tastes, with engagement built over three to four years through app interfaces and physical sites reinforcing retention.

The risks in the note are regulatory rather than competitive. "We believe the risk of regulatory intervention is higher in the Philippines than other jurisdictions," S&P wrote. "This considers the nascency of its online gambling market, given industry legalisation only in 2020. The governing regime for online gambling in the country has a short history and will likely go through several rounds of legislature development before maturing." The example it gives is the August 2025 order requiring e-wallets to remove direct links to gambling sites, whose "abrupt implementation" underscored the uncertainty for licensed operators: DigiPlus's revenue fell 23% quarter on quarter in the third quarter of 2025, after growing 176% the year before. Several Senate bills now on the table could tighten player-protection rules "or even totally ban online gaming", the agency said.

S&P also notes the market's low barriers to entry. "New entrants could include illegal operators with sizable market shares," it wrote, adding that online licences are not exclusive and that online gambling is easier to enter than casinos or lotteries. Against that, "DigiPlus' market dominance and strong balance sheet will offer some mitigation amid market consolidation. Lower online gaming tax rates in the country since 2023 and stricter law enforcement could push more users toward regulated, incumbent operators. This and a recently proposed minimum fee for licensed operators could increase barriers to entry and drive out the smaller players." Asia Gaming Brief's account of the note adds that rising marketing costs threaten to absorb the benefit of those lower tax rates, squeezing margins.

The Day's Other Philippine Story

The note landed on the day the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas told Bloomberg it had found more than 8,000 merchant accounts fronting for online casinos and drafted rules requiring payment providers to vet every merchant's owner and licence, with gambling businesses pushed into direct arrangements under enhanced due diligence. PAGCOR, which has put the licensed share of Philippine online gambling at about 50% since the e-wallet delinking, against industry estimates of up to 75% before it, has cut its revenue outlook by 19% and says demand has moved onto messaging and e-commerce apps. DigiPlus, meanwhile, has been applying for a licence in South Africa.

A 50% Share of a Market Half of Which Has Left

S&P's two numbers should be read together. DigiPlus holds about half of the legal market; PAGCOR says the legal market is about half of the whole. That makes DigiPlus's dominant position roughly a quarter of Philippine online gambling, and the growth S&P expects depends less on beating the second player than on the state's ability to pull the other half back onshore. The agency's own list of what might do that, lower tax, stricter enforcement, a minimum fee that clears out small licensees, is a list of things the government must do, not things DigiPlus can. That is why the note's risk section is longer than its strengths.

The E-Wallet Order Is the Precedent and Today's Circular Is the Sequel

S&P calls the August 2025 delinking "abrupt", and it is the reason a 40% to 50% share comes with a country-risk warning attached. The central bank's draft circular is the same instrument again, one layer deeper: last year it removed the operators' front door in the wallets, this year it proposes to close the side doors through merchant accounts. Both are aimed at the illegal market and both raise the cost of every deposit in the legal one, because the payment providers will apply the new due diligence to DigiPlus's merchants as well as the bakeries. A 23% quarterly revenue fall was the price of the first order. The second has not been priced yet.

A Senate Ban Is the Tail Risk the Rating Cannot Ignore

The agency does not say a total ban is likely; it says the bills exist. In a market legalised in 2020 and reshaped by decree in 2025, with a president who has signalled a measured approach and a Senate that keeps filing, "will likely go through several rounds of legislature development" is the polite form of the warning. The balance sheet mitigates competition. It does not mitigate a vote.

S&P thinks DigiPlus will still be first in two years. It is less sure what it will be first in.