Paradise Posts a Record ₩268bn Quarter on Better Hold as GKL's Third Quarter Stalls

Paradise Co's four foreigner-only casinos took more in the third quarter than in any quarter before it, even though customers bought fewer chips than in the second. Grand Korea Leisure recovered in September, but its quarter was barely ahead of last year's.

• Paradise Co reported provisional September casino revenue of ₩86.7 billion, approximately $63.8 million, up 38.2% year on year and down 16.8% from a record August, in a Korea Exchange filing on 2 October
• On the monthly filings, third-quarter casino revenue was about ₩268.2 billion, approximately $197 million, up 23.4% on a year earlier and 8.4% above the previous quarterly high of ₩247.5 billion set in the second quarter
• Table drop fell 4.9% between the second and third quarters, so the record came from a higher table hold rate, about 12.9% in the third quarter against 11.2% in the second, on our arithmetic from the filings
• Grand Korea Leisure reported September casino revenue of ₩37.3 billion, about $27.4 million, up 7.2% year on year and 19.8% on August, but its third quarter was up only 1.1% on 2025 and down 8.7% on the second quarter
• The results follow a 45.1% September fall at Jeju Dream Tower, as South Korea records its highest foreign arrivals in 30 years

September Completes the Best Quarter in Paradise's Filings

Paradise Co, which runs four of South Korea's 17 foreigner-only casinos, filed provisional September results on 2 October. Casino revenue was ₩86.7 billion, approximately $63.8 million, up 38.2% on September 2025 and down 16.8% on August. Table games accounted for ₩81.1 billion, about $59.6 million, up 40.4% year on year, and machines for the remaining ₩5.65 billion. The figures combine the company's casinos at Walkerhill in Seoul, Jeju, Busan and Paradise City in Incheon; the filing does not break them down by property.

Table drop, the amount customers paid for chips, was ₩605.1 billion, about $445 million, up 6.6% on September 2025 and down 11.1% on August. Dividing table revenue by drop gives a September hold of about 13.4%, against about 14.5% in August and 10.2% a year earlier. These are our calculations, not company disclosures.

August's ₩104.3 billion, about $76.7 million, was an all-time monthly record, Inside Asian Gaming reported, and it carried the quarter. Adding the restated July and August figures to September's provisional number gives third-quarter casino revenue of ₩268.2 billion, approximately $197 million, against ₩247.5 billion in the second quarter and ₩217.3 billion a year earlier. Inside Asian Gaming, citing information from Paradise, described it as a record above the previous high of ₩247.5 billion. Over nine months, casino revenue was ₩744.6 billion, about $547 million, up 10.8%, on drop up 8.1% to ₩5.77 trillion, about $4.24 billion.

GKL Recovered in September but Not Across the Quarter

Grand Korea Leisure (GKL), the state-affiliated operator of three Seven Luck casinos in Seoul and Busan, reported provisional September casino revenue of ₩37.3 billion, about $27.4 million, on the same day, 7.2% above September 2025 and 19.8% above August, when revenue fell on a weak hold. Table revenue rose 8.4% and machine revenue fell 4.5%.

Drop was ₩323.7 billion, about $238 million, up 2.4% year on year but down 5.2% on August, for an implied hold of about 10.5% against 8.1%. On the monthly filings GKL's third-quarter casino revenue was about ₩110.1 billion, approximately $80.9 million, up 1.1% on the third quarter of 2025 and down 8.7% on the second quarter, on drop up 1.7% year on year.

A Strong Visitor Market and a Competitor Four Years Away

South Korea received 15.05 million international visitors in the first eight months of 2026, up 21.6% and the highest in 30 years, the Ministry of Culture, Sports and Tourism said on 28 September, according to Asia Gaming Brief. Arrivals from China rose 29.0% to 4.82 million and from Japan 17.5% to 2.70 million. Korea began admitting Chinese tour groups without visas on 29 September 2025, in a scheme its foreign ministry announced to run to 30 June 2026, and the Ministry of Justice has extended a waiver of visa fees for group tourists from China and five other countries to 31 December, the Global Times reported.

The longer-term competitor is in Japan. KB Securities analyst Choi Yong-hyun cut his GKL target price from ₩13,000 to ₩10,000 last week, arguing that the company needs to invest before MGM Osaka, which he said is scheduled to open in the autumn of 2030, and that its decision to sign a new 10-year lease at its COEX casino in Gangnam made a self-owned Seoul venue unlikely, Inside Asian Gaming reported. The Ministry of Culture, Sports and Tourism is separately pursuing a rise in the ceiling on the tourism fund levy that foreigner-only casinos pay, from 10% of revenue to 15%.

The Record Is a Hold Story, Not a Volume Story

Paradise's third quarter beat its second by ₩20.7 billion, yet table drop fell from ₩2.06 trillion to ₩1.96 trillion. At the second quarter's hold rate, the third quarter's drop would have produced roughly ₩219 billion of table revenue rather than the ₩252.7 billion reported, which would have made it a weaker quarter, not a record. Against last year the picture is more balanced: drop rose 8.3%, and on our arithmetic about a third of the ₩49 billion rise in table revenue came from volume and two-thirds from hold of about 12.9% against 11.3%. Hold reverts in both directions, as Jeju Dream Tower found in September when its rate fell to 10.8%. The record is real, but it is the kind that a normal quarter at the tables can take away.

Demand Is Growing, but the Comparison Gets Harder From October

The volume line still supports the bull case: drop up 8.1% over nine months says Paradise is capturing growth, if more slowly than arrivals, which rose 21.6%. The year-on-year comparison now changes. The Chinese group visa-free scheme began on 29 September 2025, so this year's 38.2% rise was measured against a month almost entirely without it. From October the base includes the scheme, and a company whose September drop was only 6.6% higher than a year earlier will find double-digit revenue growth harder to show without help from the tables.

The Gap Between Paradise and GKL Is Capital

Both companies sell to the same foreign customers, in Seoul and Busan among other places, and Paradise's quarterly revenue grew 23.4% while GKL's grew 1.1%. The difference is partly hold, but it also tracks the assets: Paradise operates Paradise City, an integrated resort in Incheon, while GKL runs leased casinos whose COEX site the KB analyst describes as ageing. That is why the analyst's warning about Osaka matters more for GKL than for Paradise. A state-affiliated operator with ₩380 billion of net cash, by KB's estimate, and a fresh 10-year lease has, on the analyst's reading, little near-term plan to build, and his view that the higher levy ceiling would affect GKL less because its individual venues are small is, in effect, an argument that its scale is its shelter. That is a defensive position four years before a Japanese resort opens that is expected to compete for the Japanese players both companies rely on.

Paradise has the record and the resort, and GKL has the cash. The question the KB note leaves is whether GKL spends it before Osaka opens.