Brazil's Federal Tax Take From Betting Rises 69% to R$9.91 Billion as Lula Tells the UN It Will Not Tolerate the Model

Receita Federal collected R$9.91 billion from betting and gambling businesses in the first eight months of 2026, on its own figures, up from R$5.86 billion a year earlier. On the day the data came out, President Lula used the UN General Assembly to say Brazil would not tolerate the industry's business model, while reports suggest the measure his government is preparing would restrict advertising rather than ban the activity.

• Federal revenue from the gambling and betting division rose 69.25% to R$9.914 billion, approximately $1.93 billion, between January and August 2026, against R$5.857 billion in the same period of 2025, according to Receita Federal's monthly analysis for August
• The R$4.06 billion increase was the seventh-largest of any economic division in Receita's table, behind oil and gas extraction, financial institutions and wholesale trade among others
• Monthly collections fell to R$1.163 billion in August from R$1.463 billion in July, the first month-on-month decline since the Carnival period, BNLData reported from the same release
• Speaking at the opening of the UN General Assembly on 22 September, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva said the betting industry "transforms addiction into profit" and that Brazil would not tolerate the business model, as reported by BNLData
• The provisional measure the government is preparing is expected to restrict betting advertising, possibly with an online casino ban, rather than prohibit the activity, according to Platô

The Receipts Keep Rising While the Rhetoric Hardens

Receita Federal, the federal revenue service of Brazil, published its monthly revenue analysis for August on 22 September. In its table of receipts by economic division, which excludes social security contributions and is expressed at August 2026 prices adjusted by the IPCA inflation index, the division covering the operation of games of chance and betting collected R$9.914 billion between January and August 2026. The equivalent figure for the same months of 2025 was R$5.857 billion, an increase of R$4.056 billion, or 69.25%.

That is one of the largest increases in the table. Only six divisions added more in absolute terms, led by oil and gas extraction and financial institutions; betting added more than electricity, public administration or information technology services. BNLData, which reported the figures on the day of release, said the division includes Caixa's federal lotteries and that the receipts are federal taxes such as corporate income tax (IRPJ), the social contribution on net profit (CSLL) and PIS/Cofins, presented at a briefing by Receita tax auditors Claudemir Malaquias and Marcelo Gomide.

The monthly trend is less smooth. According to BNLData, the sector paid R$1.163 billion in August against R$1.463 billion in July, a fall of 20.51%, and the first monthly decline since the seasonal dip around Carnival in February and March. The outlet suggested an after-effect of the World Cup, whose final was played on 19 July, as one possible explanation. On the same data, the eight-month total is already close to the R$9.95 billion the sector paid across the whole of 2025, a figure the Brazilian National Association of Games and Lotteries (ANJL) has also cited.

Lula Took the Issue to the General Assembly

The figures were published on the day President Lula opened the 81st UN General Assembly in New York. According to BNLData's account of the speech, he said, in our translation: "The billion-dollar betting industry transforms addiction into profit. Its dizzying spread is plunging households into debt and destroying them. Brazil will not tolerate this business model." BNLData called it the harshest attack yet made on the sector at an international forum. It came 12 days before the first round of the presidential election on 4 October.

The measure being prepared at home looks narrower. Platô reported on Tuesday, as relayed by BNLData, that Lula intends to issue a provisional measure this week, after returning from the United States, but that the government's core does not expect a total prohibition. Allies expect it to restrict betting advertising, with a possible ban on online casino games. The reasons cited are legal, to avoid a wave of lawsuits from the 188 authorised betting brands, and electoral, since a curb on advertising would still register with voters. It follows a week in which Lula said his "personal disposition" was to end the bets and the Finance Ministry warned a full ban would cost about R$12 billion in revenue.

The Revenue Figure Is the Finance Ministry's Argument, in the Receita's Own Numbers

The Finance Ministry's reported estimate that a full ban would cost the Union about R$12 billion looked like a negotiating number when it surfaced. The Receita's table makes it look conservative. Eight months of federal receipts from the division already come to R$9.9 billion, and at the eight-month average the year would close near R$15 billion, although that figure includes the lotteries and August's fall shows the run rate is not guaranteed. Whatever the exact share attributable to licensed betting, the order of magnitude is now documented by the tax authority rather than asserted by the industry or the ministry, and that matters in a budget debate where the 2027 accounts are already under pressure.

An Advertising Measure Would Fit the Speech Less Well Than It Fits the Budget

The distance between the UN text and the reported measure is the story's real tension. "Will not tolerate this business model" describes a prohibition; restricting advertising and possibly removing online casino games describes regulation, of the kind that clubs and operators have been mobilising to shape. An advertising measure would protect most of the receipts in the Receita's table while allowing the government to claim action before the vote. An online casino ban would take out a meaningful share of licensed revenue and, as operators and the ANJL have repeatedly argued, risks pushing players to unlicensed sites that pay none of the taxes in that table.

The Receita's numbers show a betting sector that, in under two years of federal regulation, has become a material taxpayer. Whether the provisional measure treats it as a revenue base to be managed or a problem to be shrunk will be clear within days.