Remote Gaming Duty Receipts Doubled to £590m in July as the 40% Rate Kicked In

The first month to reflect the higher rate brought in 108% more online gaming duty than a year earlier, more than the rate rise alone explains. The industry says one month proves nothing; the Treasury, three weeks from a Budget that may double Machine Games Duty, may read it differently.

• HMRC's UK Betting and Gaming Statistics, published on 30 September, show provisional Remote Gaming Duty receipts of £589.7 million in July 2026, up from £283.0 million in July 2025, an increase of 108%
• July is the first month in which receipts largely reflect the rise in the duty from 21% to 40% on 1 April; the rate rose by about 90%, so on a simple reading the profits it is charged on were about 9% higher
• Total betting and gaming receipts reached £1,933 million in April to July, 19% more than a year earlier, with Remote Gaming Duty supplying half; in April to June, before the new rate showed, the total was flat
• Machine Games Duty raised £104.7 million in July, slightly less than a year earlier, as the Betting and Gaming Council's Back Our Betting Shops campaign argues that doubling it would cost the Treasury money
• Industry voices say 12 to 18 months of data are needed, but the Budget on 28 October will decide whether Machine Games Duty doubles first

The First Month at 40% Brought In Twice as Much

HM Revenue and Customs published its annual UK Betting and Gaming Statistics on Wednesday 30 September, with provisional receipts for every gambling duty to the end of July 2026. HMRC's headline is the year to date: £1,933 million in April to July, £309 million or 19% more than a year earlier, with Remote Gaming Duty (RGD) accounting for 50.0% and General Betting Duty for 16.6%. HMRC says the increase is "expected to reflect, in part" the rise in the RGD rate from 21% to 40%.

The detail is in the monthly tables. RGD is accounted for quarterly and paid within a month, so April's receipts largely relate to play in the first quarter, at the old rate; HMRC says the new rate is "expected to have contributed to higher betting and gaming receipts from July 2026 onwards". In July, RGD receipts were £589.7 million against £283.0 million in July 2025, an increase of £306.7 million or 108%. The rate rose by about 90%, so on a simple reading, and allowing for timing differences between accounting quarters, taxable gaming profits were about 9% higher than a year earlier.

Across April to July, RGD receipts were £965.9 million, up 63%, and the base may yet shrink a little: a tribunal cut Jumpman's free spins bill to nil last month, opening the way to refund claims. In April to June, before the new rate fed through, total receipts were £985 million, up just £3 million, as General Betting Duty fell 14% to £161 million and Lottery Duty fell 15% to £225 million.

Machine Duty Receipts Are Flat Ahead of the Budget

Machine Games Duty (MGD) raised £104.7 million in July against £108.3 million a year earlier, and £267.0 million in April to July, about 1.5% more than in 2025. Declared MGD liabilities for April to July were £203 million, up 3%, according to HMRC. The duty is charged at 20% on most machines. Reports that Chancellor John Healey is weighing a doubling of all three rates have set betting shops, casinos and arcades against the Treasury, with Genting closing its Coventry casino last week and Rank warning that a third of its venues would close.

The campaign's central claim is fiscal. The Betting and Gaming Council (BGC) cites EY modelling that taking MGD to 40% would leave the Treasury £124 million worse off. Allaster Gair, director of communications at Bacta, which represents the arcade and gaming machine sector, said after the Labour Party Conference that "the economic evidence makes an overwhelming case against increasing MGD", and that an increase would undermine "the overall tax take".

The Industry Says It Is Too Early

The industry's answer to the online figures is that they are premature. Stephen Hodgson, vice president of tax at Midnite, told NEXT.io that "we would have expected a boost in the first quarter of the new rate", and that 12 to 18 months of data are needed. Paul Leyland, co-founder of Regulus Partners, told the outlet that "quite a few operators are trying to hold their nerve on bonuses hoping others will fold first", and that habits "take a few months to change since Q2 revenue is largely decided by Q1 depositing". A BGC spokesperson told NEXT.io that "the real test of these tax rises is their impact on jobs, investment and businesses across the regulated sector", and that more than 600 betting shops will have closed and more than 10,000 jobs been lost by the end of 2026 since last year's Budget, figures that are the trade body's own.

One Month Has Already Outrun the Budget Costing

The government's tax information note on the 2025 gambling measures, certified by the Office for Budget Responsibility, put the yield of the whole package, including the cost of abolishing Bingo Duty, at £810 million in 2026-27. July alone produced £307 million more RGD than a year earlier. Two more quarterly payment months at the new rate fall in this financial year, October and January, and if each matched July the increase would be well above the certified figure. That is a large if: operators are expected to pass more of the rate on through bonuses and pricing, and the government's own impact note expects some players to gamble less, switch products or move to the illegal market. But on the evidence HMRC has published, the argument that a higher rate would raise less has not yet materialised for online gaming, and the BGC's response to the figures was about jobs rather than revenue.

The Online Number Is the Wrong Evidence for Machines, but It Will Be Used

RGD falls on online gaming, where an operator that absorbs a higher rate keeps its customers and its tax base, at least for now. MGD falls on machines in betting shops, arcades and casinos, where the trade bodies argue that closures shrink the base outright: a venue that shuts pays nothing. Those are different elasticities, and July's figure says nothing about how machines respond to a 40% rate. But the Treasury will set the rate with the data it has, and the only post-rise gambling evidence shows receipts doubling. The EY figures are modelling; HMRC's are receipts.

The Industry Cannot Test Its Best Argument Before the Chancellor Decides

July is the only quarterly payment month at the new rate in the published data. HMRC's receipts for October, the next one, will not appear until November, after the Budget. The industry's strongest point, that one good month reflects operators holding their nerve on bonuses, cannot be tested in time, which is why the trade bodies have shifted their case to shops, jobs and communities, and taken the campaign to the Prime Minister's constituency.

For now, the first evidence from Britain's 40% online tax favours the Treasury. Whether the land-based estate pays for it on 28 October depends on how much weight ministers give a model against a receipt.