FDJ United Cuts Its 2026 Revenue Guidance for the Third Time as Q3 Revenue Falls 8.1%

The former Française des Jeux began the year aiming for slight revenue growth and now expects a mid-single-digit decline, with its margin target trimmed to around 23%. Fewer big EuroMillions jackpots, high winnings for retail bettors and tax rises did most of the damage.

• FDJ United's revenue fell 8.1% to €794m in the third quarter and 5.6% to €2,576m over nine months, when gross gaming revenue (GGR) fell 2.8%, according to its 21 October release
• The group now aims for a low-single-digit fall in GGR, a mid-single-digit fall in revenue and a recurring EBITDA margin of around 23%, after targeting stable GGR, a low single-digit revenue decline and a 23% to 24% margin in July
• Draw-game revenue fell 17.3% in the quarter, with 12 EuroMillions jackpots above €130m this year against 27 a year earlier, while the retail sports betting payout ratio rose to nearly 80%
• Tax rises cost €62m to the end of September, and revenue at the online unit built on the Kindred acquisition fell 8.2%, with GGR down 24.4% in the UK and 8.6% in the Netherlands
• The group is reviewing its online markets and non-core assets, with conclusions due by early 2027, and its shares fell about 5% on Thursday morning

A Third Downgrade Since April Puts FDJ United's Revenue on Course to Fall

FDJ United, the Euronext Paris-listed owner of Unibet since its €2.45 billion takeover of Kindred Group in October 2024, reported after the market closed on 21 October. Third-quarter revenue fell 8.1% to €794m and GGR 6.1% to €1,950m, according to the release. Over nine months revenue fell 5.6% to €2,576m, steeper than the 4.5% first-half decline, with more than 2 points of it from tax increases. Chairwoman and chief executive Stéphane Pallez blamed factors inherent to gaming, lower footfall in a poor economic climate and the expected tax rises.

The group "is now aiming at a low-single digit decline in GGR and a mid-single digit decline in revenue", including more than €70m of additional gaming tax, and says cost control "will enable it to maintain a recurring EBITDA margin of around 23%". In February it aimed for slight revenue growth and a stable 24.5% margin. In April it expected slight GGR growth, a slight revenue decline and a 23% to 24% margin. In July it targeted stable GGR and "a low single-digit decline in revenue". The first-half margin was 22.7%.

Jackpots and Bettor Wins Hit the French Network

Revenue at the French lottery and retail sports betting unit fell 4.8% to €1,794m over nine months, after €28m of extra tax. Draw-game revenue fell 12.2%, and 17.3% to €171m in the quarter. To the end of September there were 12 EuroMillions jackpots above €130m against 27 a year earlier, and one above €200m against 12, a trend the company says all ten lotteries in the game share. Instant-game revenue rose 0.3% to €935m, but their higher payout weighed on lottery revenue. Retail sports betting revenue fell 4.5% to €297m as the payout ratio rose more than 400 basis points to nearly 80%.

Online Grew Outside Britain and the Netherlands

The online unit, largely the former Kindred business, held GGR virtually flat at €1,013m, but revenue fell 8.2% to €619m after €34m of extra tax. Excluding the Netherlands and the UK, GGR rose 5.7%, driven by France and Scandinavia. GGR fell 8.6% in the Netherlands and 24.4% in the UK, where the company says action plans should gradually restore performance. A single proprietary sportsbook is due to cover most markets by the end of 2027, with "the refocusing of development teams in Europe" under way; no number of roles is given. The group is also reviewing the online unit's markets and non-core assets, with conclusions "in early 2027 at the latest". No market is named.

Most of the tax drag was set before the year began. France raised levies from 1 July 2025, taking online sports betting from 54.9% to 59.3% of GGR, so 2026 carries the first full year. The Dutch rate rose to 37.8% of GGR in January and UK Remote Gaming Duty from 21% to 40% in April, according to FDJ United. In February the group put the 2026 tax hit at nearly €90m; it now says more than €70m, without explaining the change.

The shares traded at €19.95 at 10:10 on Thursday, down 5.05% from €21.01, according to ABC Bourse, and about 15% below the end-2025 close of €23.62 on Yahoo Finance data. JPMorgan had cut its target to €19 on 7 October, citing French political and regulatory risk before the 2027 presidential election, Agefi-Dow Jones reported.

The Taxes Were Known, So the Cuts Are About Trading

Four statements of 2026 guidance have produced three cuts, each with a new explanation: tax and fixtures in April, jackpots and heatwaves in July, jackpots, bettor wins and footfall now. Jackpots and sports results are outside management's control and tend to even out. But the tax rises were in the February target, so the downgrades reflect trading, a variance a lottery operator could build into guidance. The margin target has slipped from 24.5% to around 23%, so savings are not keeping pace with lost revenue.

The French Monopoly Is Less Defensive Than It Looks

The lottery supplied 58% of nine-month group revenue, and FDJ United holds 61% of the French market measured in the ANJ's first-half report, where its decline offset almost half of online's growth. Stable instant games point to jackpot cycles more than weak demand, a problem the 2027 relaunch of EuroMillions and Loto is meant to address. Footfall is harder: exclusive rights do not protect a retail network from a weak economy, and because levies are taken from GGR, every shortfall also lands on the public accounts.

Kindred Has Become a Two-Market Problem, and the Review Will Size It

Outside the UK and the Netherlands the online unit is growing. Rivals are handling the same 40% UK duty differently: Entain grew UK and Ireland online revenue 14%, while Flutter has put up to 1,400 UK and Ireland jobs at risk. In the Netherlands, the regulator's chairman says half of every euro gambled goes to the illegal market. After €135m of first-half impairments on online assets, a market review with a deadline is the clearest sign yet that some markets may be sold or closed, though the release names none.

FDJ United's French franchise is suffering from cycles that should turn, and its online unit is growing everywhere except where tax has risen most. After three downgrades in six months, the review will show whether the answer is a smaller footprint rather than another revised target.