Missouri Tells Six Prediction Markets to Stop or Get Licensed Within 30 Days

The letters Catherine Hanaway promised on Wednesday went out to Polymarket, Kalshi, Crypto.com, Novig, Underdog and Robinhood, dated 16 and 17 September. Five of the six are told to stop serving under-21s. The licensed sportsbooks' own exchange products are not on the list, and Kentucky, she says, is close to a settlement.

• Missouri Attorney General Catherine Hanaway announced on Friday 18 September that cease-and-desist letters had gone to Polymarket, Kalshi, Crypto.com, Novig, Underdog and Robinhood Derivatives over sports event contracts offered to Missourians
• Each has 30 days to confirm it will stop offering sports contracts in the state or obtain a Missouri Gaming Commission licence, pay the 10% tax on adjusted gross revenue and licence fees of up to $500,000, and, for every recipient except Novig, stop offering sports wagering to anyone under 21
• The office says sports event contracts do not qualify as swaps under the Commodity Exchange Act and that federal law does not pre-empt Missouri's gambling statutes, citing the Ninth Circuit's Nevada ruling
• Robinhood and Polymarket responded that their contracts are federally regulated by the CFTC; Hanaway said "chances are they may sue us" and that failure to comply "will result in enforcement action"
• It follows her interview on Wednesday saying she wanted the exchanges under Missouri gaming law and taxed, and that Kentucky was close to a settlement with the operators

The Letters Are Out, and So Is the Price

Missouri's attorney general has followed through on the cease-and-desist letters she described on Wednesday, announcing on Friday that six prediction market operators had been ordered to stop offering sports event contracts to Missourians or bring themselves under the state's sports wagering law. The recipients are Polymarket, Kalshi, Crypto.com, Novig, Underdog and Robinhood Derivatives; the letters are dated 16 and 17 September, according to copies published with the announcement.

The demand is specific. Within 30 days each company must confirm it will either stop serving Missouri on sports contracts or obtain a licence from the Missouri Gaming Commission, pay the state's 10% tax on adjusted gross revenue and its licence fees, which run to $500,000, and, in every case except Novig's, stop offering sports wagering to anyone under 21. The office's statement says Polymarket, Kalshi, Crypto.com, Underdog and Robinhood "either permit underage users to access their products or lack adequate safeguards" to keep Missourians under 21 out.

"Missourians voted for a safe, well-regulated sports wagering market that supports public education and addresses problem gambling," Hanaway said. "Companies cannot repackage sports bets as 'event contracts' to avoid Missouri law." Any company wanting to offer sports wagering "must be licensed by the Missouri Gaming Commission, pay the required taxes and fees, and ensure no one under 21 can place a bet". Failure to comply "will result in enforcement action by the State of Missouri".

On the law, the office contends that sports event contracts are not swaps within the Commodity Exchange Act and that federal law does not pre-empt state gambling statutes, relying on the Ninth Circuit's August ruling in Nevada's case. The Third Circuit reached the opposite conclusion in April in New Jersey's case, and New Jersey has asked the Supreme Court to resolve the split; Robinhood and Crypto.com have filed their own petitions.

The companies' responses were what the litigation record would predict. Robinhood said its event contracts "are federally regulated by the CFTC and offered through Robinhood Derivatives, LLC, a CFTC-registered entity, allowing retail customers to access prediction markets in a safe, compliant, and regulated manner". Polymarket said prediction markets "are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission under a federal framework, not a patchwork of state rules". Hanaway told local media on Wednesday that "chances are they may sue us once they get this cease-and-desist letter", and that Kentucky's regulators were close to some form of settlement with the exchanges, after the state sued Kalshi and Polymarket in June and the CFTC sued Kentucky in turn. No terms of any Kentucky settlement have been published.

Missouri's regulated market is nine months old. Voters approved Amendment 2 in November 2024, mobile betting launched on 1 December 2025 under the Missouri Gaming Commission with a 21-year minimum age and a 10% tax, and the licensing round gave direct licences to DraftKings and Circa, with Fanatics securing market access through a casino partner.

The List Is as Interesting for Who Is Not on It

DraftKings holds a direct Missouri sportsbook licence, pays the 10% tax and runs 21-plus age verification, and it also runs DraftKings Predictions, an event-contract product on its own designated contract market. It is not on the office's published list, and nor is FanDuel Predicts, the exchange product FanDuel runs with CME. That is consistent with Hanaway's stated aim: she is not trying to abolish sports contracts in Missouri, she is trying to put them on the same terms as the licensed books, and an operator already inside the licensing regime is not the target. The six recipients are the operators whose contracts reach Missourians without a Missouri licence attached. The message to them is that the route to compliance exists and a competitor has taken it.

Age Verification Is the Ground the Exchanges Least Want to Fight On

Every earlier state action has argued jurisdiction: whether a swap is a bet and whether the CEA pre-empts. Missouri argues that too, but the letters lead with a factual claim that five of the six recipients let under-21s in or cannot show they keep them out. The exchanges register customers at 18 under federal rules, which is the whole of the problem: a lawful practice under one regime is a criminal one under the other, and a court asked to decide pre-emption will have in front of it a concrete allegation that Missourians aged 18 to 20 can place what the state calls a sports bet. Novig's exemption from the age demand suggests the office checked, which makes the claim against the other five harder to wave away.

Thirty Days Lands in the Middle of the Football Season and the Supreme Court Calendar

The deadline falls in mid-October. Kalshi has asked the Supreme Court for an extension to 9 November on New Jersey's petition, the Ninth Circuit's en banc decision on Nevada is pending, and no court will have settled the jurisdictional question before Missouri's clock runs out. The exchanges' choice is therefore the one Hanaway described: sue, settle or geofence. Connecticut's letters produced compliance from some operators and a lawsuit from Underdog; Washington's injunction produced geofencing under a $120,000-a-day threat. Missouri has told the six what a settlement costs, in a tax rate and a fee, which is more than most states have offered before suing.

Missouri has done in one week what took other states a year, and has done it with a price list. What happens on day 31 depends on whether any exchange thinks 10% of Missouri is worth more than the principle.