Fux Says Bets Should Be Banned, Floats a Transition as One Licence Is Restored

The Supreme Federal Tribunal's hearing on Brazil's betting ban ended without a decision, its rapporteur pairing a call for prohibition with talk of deadlines. The same afternoon a federal appeal judge restored one operator's licence.

• Justice Luiz Fux told the public hearing on 3 November that bets should be banned, adding that his view depends on the full court
• He also raised legal certainty and modulation, which reports link to conditions or deadlines
• Attorney General Jorge Messias defended the ban, while Flamengo put its loss at about R$430 million, approximately $78 million, a year
• The Prosecutor-General's Office has yet to speak on Provisional Measure 1.394, and no ruling or trial date has been announced
• A federal appeal judge provisionally restored CDA Gaming's authorisation, covering Casa de Apostas, Betsul and Jogo Online, for that company alone

Fux Separates His View From the Question Before the Court

The Supreme Federal Tribunal (STF) closed its second public hearing on betting on Tuesday 3 November with no decision. It was called in ADI 8027, one of four actions against Provisional Measure 1.394 in Brazil, with ADIs 8024, 8028 and 8035; ADIs 7721, 7723 and 7749 challenge the 2023 betting law. The STF listed 28 entities on 28 October, and Fux added six after the Attorney General's Office (AGU) objected to the balance. CNN Brasil counted at least 22 of the 34 as already opposed to the ban.

Fux said the 2024 hearing left him with the perception that bets "devem ser banidas" (should be banned), Agência Brasil reported, a view he said depends on the full court, according to CNN Brasil. He listed legal certainty and the measure's urgency as the new questions and, CNN Brasil and Migalhas report, raised modulating a decision's effects through conditions or deadlines.

He welcomed not having ruled mid-election, saying the court must sometimes "decidir não decidir" (decide not to decide) and return a subject to its "arena própria" (proper arena), BNLData, an industry title, reported. Closing, he said some issues could be resolved outside the judiciary, the STF said.

The Government Argued Harm, and Sport Counted the Cost

Messias said the framework had become materially unconstitutional, Migalhas reported, and that "esse dragão era impossível de se domar" (this dragon was impossible to tame), according to CNN Brasil. BNLData quotes him conceding that administrative action had been "muito eficientes" (very efficient). He accepted that supermarket sales figures do not prove cause and effect and repeated his request for a further hearing, Migalhas said.

Rodrigo Toneto of the Finance Ministry estimated R$62 billion, approximately $11.3 billion, transferred from households to the sector, according to Migalhas.

Flamengo vice-president Flávio Willeman estimated the loss at about R$430 million a year, affecting more than 1,200 employees, Migalhas reported. CNN Brasil reported that the Brazilian Football Confederation (CBF) put its own at R$420 million, approximately $77 million, next year; it proposed a transition to the 2030 World Cup. The Prosecutor-General's Office recalled its ADI 7749 against the law, but said it has yet to speak on the measure.

An Appeal Judge Restores One Operator

Judge Adriana Pileggi of the Federal Regional Court of the 3rd Region (TRF3) signed her decision at 14:00 on Tuesday, after a São Paulo court refused an injunction. It lifts the extinction of CDA Gaming's authorisation for that company alone and orders its domains and payment services restored until final judgment or a further order, subject to state oversight. Pileggi held that relevance and urgency were absent and called the lack of any refund or compensation for the R$30 million, approximately $5.5 million, authorisation "um verdadeiro confisco" (a true confiscation).

Congress's record on 4 November still showed the joint committee awaiting installation, with the urgency regime starting on 9 November and the voting period ending on 23 November, extendable once by 60 days. Agência Brasil says Fux has indicated he will take the case straight to the plenary.

Modulation Is Now the Realistic Prize

Fux's stated view gives operators little hope of a clean win, though he concedes one vote depends on the others. The concrete opening is timing, and clubs, the CBF and academics at the hearing pressed for a transition. That would help sponsors, but whether it restores licences extinguished on 25 October is a question nobody at the STF has answered.

The TRF3 Order Is Blunt but Fragile

Pileggi reached the urgency question Fux has left open. But the order creates what her court's president, suspending Stake's injunction on 9 October, called a regulatory asymmetry, and BNLData expects the federal government to try to overturn it. Yogonet counted 19 actions on 28 October, none with an injunction in force, so the incentive to cite this decision is obvious.

"Became Unconstitutional" Carries the Government's Case

The AGU defended this law in 2024, so its argument depends on the word "became": a framework that was valid and then failed even when well run. That is also the weak point. The regulated market only began in January 2025, and Messias conceded that the most vivid recent evidence proves no causation.

The STF has heard the arguments and Congress has not begun. The licensed market stays shut, and the one exception rests on one judge's signature.