Ksa Says Dutch Licensed Gambling Shrank to €4.1bn as Online Accounts Rose

The Kansspelautoriteit's annual market scan shows licensed gross gaming revenue in the Netherlands fell from €4.5 billion to €4.1 billion in 2025, with online betting down 30.2%. Its half-year monitor counts 1.48 million online accounts without a matching rise in players, which the regulator says may point to people getting around per-account deposit limits.

• The Kansspelautoriteit (Ksa) says licensed gross gaming revenue in the Netherlands fell to €4.1 billion in 2025 from an inflation-adjusted €4.5 billion in 2024, with online revenue down 21.0% to €1.20 billion
• Online casino revenue fell 18.2% and online betting 30.2%, which the Ksa partly attributes to the October 2024 player protection rules, a gaming tax rise and the Euro 2024 comparison
• Active accounts averaged 1.48 million a month in the first half of 2026, up from 1.38 million, while the estimated number of people gambling online with licensed operators did not grow
• Channelisation by player numbers is put at 94% or 97%, but by revenue at only 59%, up from 54%, which the Ksa says suggests illegal gamblers lose considerably more on average
• Cruks held 120,200 registrations on 31 July 2026, and in September the Ksa chairman said half of every euro gambled goes to the illegal market

The Ksa Finds the Licensed Market Shrank as Online Revenue Fell by a Fifth

The Ksa published its Marktscan covering calendar 2025 and its eleventh half-yearly monitoring report on online gambling, covering January to June 2026, on 29 October. According to the Marktscan, gross gaming revenue (GGR, stakes minus prizes paid) across the licensed market was €4.1 billion in 2025, against €4.5 billion in 2024 in inflation-adjusted terms. Online GGR fell from €1.52 billion to €1.20 billion.

The Ksa links the decline to player protection rules in force from 1 October 2024, which set a net deposit limit of €300 a month for players aged 18 to 23 and €700 for those 24 and over, to the gaming tax rise from 30.5% to 34.2% during 2025, and to a 2024 base inflated by the men's European Championship. The tax rose again to 37.8% on 1 January 2026.

Land-based results diverged. Slot machine revenue in arcades and hospitality venues fell 4.7%, while Holland Casino grew 2.8%, driven by slot machines, and lotteries fell 1.8%. Land-based betting rose 8.5%, which the Ksa says may reflect lighter regulation, including no Cruks check.

More Accounts, Not More Players

The monitoring report puts online GGR at €670 million in the first half of 2026, up about 11% from €602 million, which the Ksa says may reflect the men's World Cup.

Active accounts averaged 1.48 million a month, up from 1.38 million. The Ksa's panel estimate of people gambling monthly fell to 490,000 from 510,000. The regulator concludes that gambling with multiple accounts has increased, possibly to get around per-account limits, though it notes its panel data, showing players visiting 3.1 licensed operators against 3.3, points the other way.

Young adults aged 18 to 23 held 22% of active accounts, against 9.2% of the adult population, and accounted for €68 million, or 10.1% of online GGR. Their average loss per account was €34 a month, against €75 overall. Average loss per player rose 13% to €137 a month, still below the €160 of early 2024.

Channelisation, Cruks and Harm

The Ksa estimates that 480,000 people a month gambled only with licensed operators, 10,000 with both and 20,000 only with illegal sites. Revenue-based channelisation, estimated from Google Ads search volumes, rose from 54% to 59%. The Ksa says it has found no indication that tighter regulation has reduced channelisation.

Cruks, the national self-exclusion register, grew by about 2,000 people a month, slowing to 400 in June. Involuntary registration requests and operator notifications rose from 442 to 746, which the Ksa ties to its warning to licensees from the second quarter of 2025 that they were filing few notifications. Treatment figures from the National Alcohol and Drugs Information System (LADIS) show 3,108 people treated for gambling in 2025, up from 2,708.

The number of online adverts by licensed operators fell 33%, from 75,000 to 50,000 a month, according to Nielsen data in the report. Online advertising remains permitted only where at least 95% of the audience is aged 24 or over.

The Revenue Gap Is the Number That Matters

A 94% player figure and a 59% revenue figure describe the same market. If roughly 6% of players account for about two fifths of revenue, the illegal market is concentrated among heavy losers, the group the deposit limits were built to protect. That matches the case Ksa chairman Michel Groothuizen has made for enforcement over further restriction, and it sits alongside the record €37.25 million fine on the operator of Instantcasino.

The Method Limits the Trend

The Ksa is candid about uncertainty. Its player estimates rest on a GfK panel of about 6,000 people, roughly 300 of them online gamblers. It excluded operators it believes manipulated search volumes and, having revised the method, reports revenue channelisation only from summer 2025. The rise to 59% spans just two periods, the later one flattered by the World Cup.

Account Splitting Tests Per-Operator Limits

Deposit limits applied per account lose force if players open more accounts, and the Ksa now flags that pattern in its own data. The Ksa renewed eight online licences to 2031 in September, and the coalition agreement, as Groothuizen described it in February, commits to a full online advertising ban and a study of capping licence numbers. Neither addresses account splitting; a limit that follows the player rather than the account would.

The licensed Dutch market is smaller, and the Ksa sees no sign that the rules have driven players away. Whether that holds depends on revenue data the regulator itself treats with caution.