GKL Chief Tells Lawmakers Osaka Resort Could Cut Its Revenue by 5% to 10%

Grand Korea Leisure's president put a number on the Osaka threat at the National Assembly this week, then corrected it: about a quarter of its Japanese revenue, or 5% to 10% of the total. An industry study presented the same day put the hit to Korea's foreigner-only casinos far higher.

• Grand Korea Leisure (GKL) president Yoon Doo-hyun told the National Assembly's culture committee on 14 October that Osaka's integrated resort could cut GKL's total revenue by about 5% to 10% once it opens, according to the broadcast proceedings
• He gave the range as a correction: asked by Democratic Party lawmaker Im Oh-kyeong what a fall of up to 30% in Japanese customers would do, he first said about 25%, then clarified that this referred to Japanese revenue only
• On 2025 ministry figures, 5% to 10% of the ₩425.3 billion taken by GKL's three Seven Luck casinos would be roughly ₩21 billion to ₩43 billion a year, approximately $16 million to $31 million
• Im said GKL had set no targets for the new markets it is studying, and Yoon promised her office a 2030 strategy; MGM Osaka is due to open around autumn 2030
• A study presented the same day at a Korea Casino Association seminar estimated that Korea's foreigner-only casinos could lose ₩800 billion to about ₩1 trillion a year, as the culture ministry weighs raising the tourism fund levy ceiling from 10% to 15%

GKL's President Puts a Number on Osaka, Then Corrects It

Yoon Doo-hyun, president of Grand Korea Leisure (GKL), the majority state-owned operator of three foreigner-only Seven Luck casinos in Seoul and Busan, told the National Assembly's Culture, Sports and Tourism Committee on 14 October that the opening of Osaka's integrated resort (IR) could reduce GKL's total revenue by about 5% to 10%. This account is drawn from the National Assembly Television (NATV) broadcast of the annual audit; the official minutes are not yet published.

Im Oh-kyeong, a Democratic Party lawmaker, opened by citing analyses that the resort would draw 20 million visitors a year and take about ₩4.7 trillion, approximately $3.5 billion, in revenue, ₩3.6 trillion of it from the casino. Yoon said he could not recall GKL's own figures, but that Osaka's proximity would make the shock "qualitatively different" from casinos opening in Singapore or the Philippines. Asked what would happen to GKL's revenue and operating profit if Japanese customers fell by as much as 30%, he said about 25% would be hit, temporarily.

Later in the session Yoon corrected himself: the 25% referred to Japanese revenue, and on a total-revenue basis GKL expected an impact of about 5% to 10%. He gave no figure for operating profit. Digital Daily and Asia Gaming Brief attributed the visitor and revenue projections to Yoon; in the broadcast they are part of Im's question.

Im said GKL was studying Taiwan, Thailand and Mongolia but had no targets for them. Yoon said the company had overall targets and agreed to send her office a 2030 strategy including a simulation of Japanese customer losses. MGM Osaka's approved plan projects about 20 million visitors and ¥520 billion of annual revenue, forecasts that Japan's tourism ministry asked it on 9 October to refine.

Im also raised the culture ministry's plan to lift the ceiling on the tourism promotion fund levy from 10% to 15% of revenue, with the higher rate applied to a top revenue bracket. Yoon said GKL treats the levy as a kind of licence fee, did not expect to reach 15% because its revenue is small, and warned that a heavier levy could hurt the share price. He put GKL's surplus at roughly ₩30 billion to ₩50 billion a year, without saying how it was measured; its half-year report shows operating profit of ₩39.0 billion, approximately $29 million, in the first six months of 2026 alone.

An Industry Study Puts the Sector's Loss Far Higher

The same day, at a Korea Casino Association seminar in Seoul, Kyung Hee University emeritus professor Lee Choong-ki presented an update of a 2018 study. He estimated that Korea's foreigner-only casinos could lose about ₩800 billion, approximately $590 million, a year under a conservative scenario and about ₩1 trillion under a pessimistic one, My Daily reported; Business Plus put the pessimistic figure at $737.76 million, about ₩1.05 trillion, with 9,051 fewer jobs.

Of Japanese VIP customers surveyed at Korea's foreigner-only casinos, 80.2% said they intended to visit the Osaka IR and 90% agreed it would reduce their visits to Korean casinos, according to Business Plus. The surveys covered 1,250 Korean outbound travellers, 493 Kangwon Land customers and foreigner-only casino customers interviewed by a Kyung Hee team. Speakers used the seminar to argue against the levy increase and five-year licence renewals.

Yoon's Own Numbers Imply Japan Is a Fifth to Two-Fifths of GKL

If losing 25% of Japanese revenue costs 5% to 10% of the total, Japanese customers account for between 20% and 40% of GKL's revenue. That is our arithmetic, and the width of the range is the point. GKL's half-year report names Japan and Greater China as its main markets but gives no split by nationality, and its chief executive could not give the committee a number without correcting himself. The scenario was also Im's, a hypothetical 30% fall in Japanese customers, not a company forecast.

The Two Estimates Are Far Apart, and Both Come From Interested Parties

The 17 foreigner-only casinos took ₩2.26 trillion, approximately $1.7 billion, in 2025 on ministry figures in GKL's filing, so a ₩800 billion loss would be about 35% of the market and ₩1.05 trillion about 46%, on our arithmetic, against 5% to 10% at GKL, which holds about 19% of it. The bases differ, and stated intentions to visit a resort that does not yet exist usually overstate behaviour. Both sides have reasons to pitch their numbers where they did: the association, whose members oppose the levy rise, is better served by a large figure, and a president who warned about the share price in the same session by a modest one. Neither has published its method.

GKL Has Time, but No Plan on the Record

Rivals are positioning with assets. Paradise runs an integrated resort in Incheon, and Kangwon Land's new chief is reviewing its ₩3 trillion resort plan. GKL runs leased venues, faces questions over its overseas marketing, and has answered Osaka so far with new markets for which, by Im's account, it has set no targets. The strategy promised to Im's office is the first document that could show a model behind the range.

GKL's president has now put Osaka's cost at up to a tenth of revenue, on a lawmaker's hypothetical and after a correction. The strategy he owes the committee will show whether the company has a better number, and a plan to go with it.