Okada Manila's Q3 EBITDA Falls 13% to PHP962m Even as Visitors Rise 12%

Okada Manila drew more visitors, filled more hotel rooms and earned nearly a fifth more from its mass tables in the third quarter, yet revenue was flat and adjusted EBITDA fell 13%. Most of the mass-table gain came from a higher win rate rather than more play, and the VIP business kept shrinking.

• Okada Manila's adjusted segment EBITDA fell 13.0% year on year to PHP962 million (approximately $15.3 million) in the third quarter of 2026, according to preliminary figures published on 14 October by its Tokyo-listed parent, Universal Entertainment
• Visitors rose 11.8% to about 1.45 million and hotel occupancy reached 95.0%, against 86.9%, but total revenue was flat at PHP7.84 billion and non-gaming revenue fell 6.9% to PHP804 million
• Mass table win rose 19.7% to PHP3.01 billion while VIP win fell 21.4% to PHP1.15 billion, and the property ended the quarter with 44 VIP tables against 61 a year earlier
• The quarter was the strongest of 2026 so far, with EBITDA nearly three times the second quarter's PHP333 million, but nine-month EBITDA is still down 47.3% at PHP2.13 billion
• Okada Manila has lagged the four Entertainment City integrated resorts as a group, whose casino GGR rose 2.7% in the second quarter while Okada's fell 14.6%

A Fuller Hotel and a Busier Mass Floor Did Not Lift Revenue

The figures cover Tiger Resort, Leisure and Entertainment, Inc. (TRLEI), the Universal Entertainment subsidiary that operates Okada Manila in Manila's Entertainment City, and were published by Universal (Tokyo: 6425) as a table of preliminary figures, subject to change, with no commentary. Adjusted segment EBITDA was PHP962 million, against PHP1.11 billion a year earlier. Total revenue was PHP7.84 billion (approximately $124.9 million), unchanged from the third quarter of 2025, and gross gaming revenue rose 0.9% to PHP7.04 billion.

The mix moved further from VIP towards mass. Mass table win, live and online combined, rose 19.7% to PHP3.01 billion. Live mass drop rose 5.4% to PHP9.0 billion, while the live win rate rose to 32.2% from 28.4%. VIP rolling chip volume fell 27.7% to PHP29.4 billion and VIP win fell 21.4% to PHP1.15 billion, cushioned by a win rate of 3.9% against 3.6%. Machine handle rose 5.6% to PHP56.1 billion, but machine win fell 4.0% to PHP2.88 billion as the win rate slipped to 5.1% from 5.7%. The resort ended the quarter with 163 mass tables and 3,271 machines, against 157 and 2,975 a year earlier.

Outside the casino, 1,453,393 people visited the property, up 11.8%. Hotel occupancy was 95.0%, the average daily room rate fell 4.5% to PHP9,473 and revenue per available room (RevPAR) rose 4.4% to PHP9,000. Non-gaming revenue from hotel, food and beverage, retail and entertainment nonetheless fell 6.9% to PHP804 million; the report gives no breakdown. Depreciation fell to PHP821 million from PHP1.56 billion.

The Best Quarter of a Difficult Year

Against earlier quarters the picture is kinder. EBITDA was PHP830 million in the first quarter of 2026 and PHP333 million in the second, when VIP win fell 56% to about PHP1.0 billion, according to Universal's earlier reports. Over nine months, GGR is down 10.6% at PHP19.56 billion, VIP win is down 35.1% and EBITDA is down 47.3% at PHP2.13 billion (approximately $33.8 million), even though visitors rose 5.4% to 4.33 million.

In its first-half presentation in August, Universal blamed a VIP slump in Entertainment City, intensified competition, the domestic political situation and the economic impact of conflicts in the Middle East. It said the integrated resort business "aims to turn a profit" in the second half, leaning on its Okada Online Casino and Okada Play products, conferences and Japanese tourists.

The wider market is weak but not uniformly so. Philippine GGR fell 20.3% to PHP88.13 billion in the second quarter as electronic gaming slumped, according to Philippine Amusement and Gaming Corporation (PAGCOR) data released on 10 August, after the regulator warned that full-year GGR could fall by up to 19%. Licensed casinos grew 2.9% to PHP45.4 billion and Entertainment City 2.7%, according to Inside Asian Gaming's report of the data, and Bloomberry Resorts said GGR at Solaire Resort Entertainment City rose 18% to PHP11.5 billion. Third-quarter PAGCOR data is not yet out.

The ownership fights are behind it. Representatives of founder Kazuo Okada, ousted over alleged fraud, held the resort from May 2022 until PAGCOR reinstated the Universal-backed board that September, and the Supreme Court ruled in November 2023 that he had been properly removed, according to Universal's account. A planned Nasdaq listing through the special purpose acquisition company 26 Capital was terminated in June 2023, with Universal citing breaches and fraudulent conduct by 26 Capital.

The Mass-Table Growth Was Mostly Hold, Not Volume

Had Okada Manila held live mass play at last year's 28.4%, its PHP9.0 billion drop would have produced about PHP2.56 billion of live win, up roughly 3.6% rather than 19.2%. Applying last year's win rates to every segment gives GGR of about PHP6.87 billion, roughly 1.5% lower than a year earlier rather than 0.9% higher, by our calculation from rounded rates. Live mass hold was 30.1% in the first quarter and 28.6% in the second, so 32.2% is unlikely to be the norm. Per head, the picture is softer still: live mass drop per visitor fell about 5.7% and machine handle per visitor about 5.5%. Okada is attracting more people, and each is playing a little less.

The VIP Problem Looks Specific to Okada

Universal points to a VIP slump across Entertainment City, and Bloomberry also described VIP demand as soft, with much of its gain coming from higher hold. Yet in the second quarter, when Okada's rolling chip volume fell 22.5% and its GGR 14.6%, Solaire's flagship still grew VIP volume 12% and Entertainment City casino GGR rose 2.7% in aggregate. The third quarter's 27.7% fall in rolling chip volume, alongside a cut to 44 VIP tables, is consistent with Okada losing premium players to rivals rather than simply riding a market-wide decline, though the data cannot show where those players went. Shrinking the VIP floor is a rational response, but it leaves the property dependent on a mass segment whose growth this quarter came mainly from hold.

A Full Hotel at Lower Rates Raises a Question About Complimentary Rooms

Occupancy of 95% with lower room rates and falling non-gaming revenue is an unusual combination. Universal's own note says RevPAR includes the retail value of promotional allowances, so it can rise on complimentary rooms that earn no cash, which fits a resort filling rooms to bring players in; the report does not say how many were complimentary. Costs, measured as revenue less EBITDA, rose about 2.2% on flat revenue, unexplained in the release. Progress towards the second-half profit aim owes something to lower depreciation: EBITDA exceeded the depreciation charge by about PHP141 million, after falling PHP462 million short in the second quarter. Adjusted EBITDA excludes other items too, so the table cannot show whether the resort is profitable.

Okada Manila has shown it can fill its hotel and its mass floor. Until those visitors spend more per head and the VIP decline stops, the growth will keep showing up in the visitor count faster than in EBITDA.