Super Group Lowers Its 2026 Revenue Outlook After a $40m Sports Hit

Betway's owner grew revenue 10% to $611 million in the third quarter, but customer-friendly sports results cost it about $40 million and pushed full-year revenue guidance below the floor it set in August. The profit line flatters the quarter, and the earnings guide barely moved.

• Super Group reported third-quarter revenue of $611 million on 3 November, up 10% from $557 million, with adjusted EBITDA up 8% to $165 million and profit of $142 million against $96 million
• The company says customer-friendly sports results cut revenue by about $40 million and adjusted EBITDA by about $25 million, while casino gross revenue rose 16%
• Full-year revenue guidance is now $2.525 billion to $2.575 billion, below the "more than $2.6 billion" given in August; adjusted EBITDA guidance is $700 million to $720 million, against "greater than $710 million"
• Africa grew to $262 million, 43% of segment revenue, while chief executive Neal Menashe said UK revenue rose 13% despite the higher remote duties that hit Flutter
• The board authorised a buyback of up to $150 million to the end of December 2027, and Menashe told analysts the group has no prediction markets product

Casino Absorbed a Bad Run in Sport

Super Group's results release, issued after the New York market closed on 3 November, put third-quarter revenue at $611 million and adjusted EBITDA at $165 million, a 27% margin, against $684 million and $204 million in the second quarter. Monthly active customers rose 9% to 6.0 million.

Chief financial officer Alinda van Wyk said in the release that customer-friendly sports outcomes cost about $40 million of revenue and $25 million of adjusted EBITDA. On the call on 4 November she put the sports margin at 12.1%, against a trailing 24-month average of 13.7%, according to The Motley Fool's transcript.

Africa produced $262 million of segment revenue, up from $224 million, and adjusted EBITDA of $88 million against $72 million. African casino revenue rose to $205 million from $169 million; sportsbook was almost flat at $57 million. International grew to $344 million from $328 million and its EBITDA to $93 million from $75 million. America contributed $193 million and Europe $115 million, up from $186 million and $108 million.

One-Off Items, New Guidance and Two Answers on the Call

Profit rose to $142 million, but the reconciliation to adjusted EBITDA lists a $17 million release of a remote gaming duty provision after a favourable tribunal decision, a $5 million release of a penalties provision and $17 million of Austrian gaming taxes recovered for 2014 to 2022. Those items total $39 million.

The release says only that guidance is being "revised". On the August results call, van Wyk said the group expected revenue of more than $2.6 billion and adjusted EBITDA greater than $710 million. Nine-month revenue was $1.907 billion and adjusted EBITDA $521 million, so the new ranges imply fourth-quarter revenue of $618 million to $668 million and EBITDA of $179 million to $199 million. Van Wyk said October's sports margin was the highest of the year. The board approved the buyback on 30 October; the group paid $203 million in dividends in nine months and held $602 million in cash.

Asked about prediction markets by Macquarie's Chad Beynon, Menashe said: "Prediction markets are gambling. That will have to be regulated and pay the local taxes." On the UK, he said the group remains "under-indexed", that rivals are working out "how they can make this market work" after tax rises, and that combining its UK businesses and lower marketing rates let it absorb the extra duty. On acquisitions generally, he said the price "has to be right".

The Revenue Guide Fell, the Earnings Guide Barely Did

Calling this a cut is fair for revenue: the top of the new range sits $25 million below the August floor. Adjusted EBITDA is different: the midpoint of $710 million is the old floor. Lost sports revenue carries taxes and marketing with it, so $40 million of revenue cost $25 million of EBITDA, and 16% casino growth covered much of the gap. If October's margin held, the low end looks cautious.

Reported Profit Overstates the Quarter

Without the $39 million of provision releases and recovered tax, profit would have been about $103 million before any tax effect, a far smaller step up from $96 million than the headline 48%. The release does not say whether last year's quarter carried similar items. Adjusted EBITDA growth of 8% is the better guide.

Super Group Is Betting on Licensed Tax Bases, Not Event Contracts

Menashe's line on prediction markets fits a group that left the US and earns its money in South Africa, Canada and the UK, where no federal derivatives regulator offers the route around gambling law that US platforms rely on. His UK pitch is the mirror image: with the Budget raising Machine Games Duty on top of 40% Remote Gaming Duty, scale and Premier League visibility, such as the Manchester United deal, are meant to win share from operators that cannot carry the cost.

The quarter shows the casino-led model working as Super Group says it does, with sport the volatile layer on top. The test now is whether Africa and the UK keep growing once the tax bills of 2027 arrive.