IG Group Plans UK Prediction Markets for Professional Clients This Year, With Sports and Politics Awaiting a Gambling Licence

The FTSE 100 trading group says financial prediction markets will launch in the fourth quarter for professional clients only, as the Financial Conduct Authority still treats them as banned retail binary options. Sports and politics wait on a Gambling Commission licence it has applied for.

• IG Group said at its Capital Markets Event on 22 October that financial prediction markets "will launch in Q4 2026 for UK professional clients", according to its announcement to the London Stock Exchange
• Its IG Consumer division has applied for a UK gambling licence and expects to add politics, entertainment and sports markets in early 2027
• The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) told the Treasury in April that it views financial prediction market products as binary options, which it has banned for retail consumers since 2 April 2019
• The Gambling Commission said in February that prediction markets appear to need its betting intermediary licence, the view Polymarket has been lobbying against in London
• In the US, IG's broker tastytrade has offered CFTC-regulated financial event contracts since July, and its pending purchase of Underdog would add sports contracts

IG Puts a Date on UK Prediction Markets, but Only for Professionals

IG Group Holdings, owner of the IG, tastytrade and Freetrade brands, set out the plan at a Capital Markets Event in London on Thursday 22 October. Its announcement that morning states that "financial prediction markets will launch in Q4 2026 for UK professional clients", and that IG Consumer "has also applied for a UK gambling licence and expects to broaden its markets to include politics, entertainment and sports in early 2027".

The presentation slide on the plan describes the first launch as "the UK's first 24/5, tax-free, regulated financial prediction markets proposition". As evidence of demand, IG cites its own survey of about 1,002 active UK traders and investors, 84% of whom found prediction markets appealing, and Similarweb data showing about 2 million UK visits to offshore prediction platforms in April 2026, up 377% in two years. The same slide lists the obstacles: "dual licensing" split between financial events and sports, politics and entertainment, the "retail ban on binaries" and a "deeply embedded gambling tax regime".

IG Consumer chief executive Michael Healy presented it alongside a unified UK platform IG says will carry "CFD, spread betting, share dealing, crypto, predictions and beyond". SBC News, which reported that IG applied for a Gambling Commission betting licence a week before the event, said the company also plans a UK advertising campaign, including on Sky Sports, next month, and that IG's shares were up 22p at £9.72 during the afternoon. Chief executive Breon Corcoran said that "trading, investing and entertainment are converging, and IG is well placed to capitalise on the opportunity". IG did not say how its first product will be structured or priced, or name the licence type it has applied for; the Gambling Commission does not publish applications.

Two Regulators, Split by the Event Being Traded

The FCA's permanent ban, in force since 2 April 2019, prohibits firms acting in or from the UK from selling, marketing or distributing binary options to retail consumers; the FCA's then executive director Christopher Woolard called them "gambling products dressed up as financial instruments". At a meeting with the Economic Secretary to the Treasury on 30 April 2026, the FCA's chief executive said the regulator's current view is that financial prediction market products "only provide binary options and therefore remain subject to the FCA's permanent ban", and that it is considering whether further work is needed on access to them. The Financial Times has since reported that the FCA has held talks with prediction market operators, according to The Paypers. No change to the ban has been proposed, and it does not reach professional clients.

Sports, political and entertainment contracts fall to the Gambling Commission. Its director of strategy, Brad Enright, wrote on 4 February that prediction market products "would appear" to fall within the definition of a betting intermediary, the licence used for betting exchanges, and that an operator launching in Great Britain could not classify itself as a non-gambling product. Spread betting, IG's founding product, is the exception, regulated by the FCA.

What IG Already Runs in the US

IG's US broker tastytrade launched CFTC-regulated prediction markets on 27 July 2026 through Apex Clearing's futures commission merchant, with contracts on central bank rate decisions including the Bank of England's, inflation and jobs data, the VIX, crypto, energy and metals, according to its announcement; the catalogue it listed has no sports contracts. Those would come with Underdog, the fantasy sports and prediction markets operator IG agreed in July to buy for up to about $1.3 billion, which holds a designated contract market, a clearing house and a futures commission merchant. IG said the deal is on track to complete in late 2026 or early 2027. Underdog is meanwhile suing several states that have tried to stop its sports contracts.

IG Is Taking the Licence Route Polymarket Is Lobbying to Avoid

Kalshi and Polymarket argue that event contracts are financial products for a markets regulator, and Polymarket has taken that case to London and Brussels. By applying to the Gambling Commission, IG has accepted the Commission's reading for sports and politics instead of contesting it. That swaps a fight it would probably lose for the full weight of British gambling regulation, including safer gambling duties, integrity rules and gambling duty. It also leaves IG arguing different things on each side of the Atlantic: through Underdog, it would be defending sports contracts in US courts as federally regulated derivatives, while treating the same kind of product as betting in Britain.

The Fourth-Quarter Launch Is Narrower Than the Headline

"Prediction markets in 2026" is accurate, but this year's product is for professional clients and financial events only, the part of the market the FCA already polices and the part least like betting. The mass-market version, with football and elections, depends on a licence not yet granted and a timetable IG gives only as early 2027. Its demand evidence measures interest, not behaviour: a survey for IG's own brand tracker and a count of website visits. The economics will change between the phases too, from a product pitched as tax-free to one that would carry British gambling duty. With Betdaq's exchange closing this month, a group with about 865,000 monthly active customers would be a notable entrant, if they want to trade sports outcomes at all.

IG is the first large British financial firm to say it will bring prediction markets to the UK under the existing rules rather than wait for new ones. What it has promised for this year is a product for professionals; the version for the wider public depends on the Gambling Commission.