BetMGM More Than Doubles Q3 EBITDA to $86m but Still Guides to the Low End for 2026

BetMGM's third quarter was its joint-best for adjusted EBITDA on the figures it has published since 2025, against a weak comparison a year earlier. It still expects 2026 to land at the bottom of guidance that has already been cut once, which needs a fourth quarter bigger than any it has reported.

• BetMGM reported Q3 2026 net revenue of $710 million, up 7%, and adjusted EBITDA of $86 million, up 112% from $41 million, in an update published on 13 October by its owners MGM Resorts International and Entain
• iGaming net revenue rose 6% to $483 million and online sports 7% to $216 million, on handle up 3% and a sports hold of 10.7% against 10.1% a year earlier
• Average monthly actives fell 3% to 878,000, which BetMGM says was expected, while its GGR market share in active markets rose to 14% from 13% in the previous quarter
• BetMGM reiterated FY 2026 guidance of $2.9 billion to $3.1 billion of net revenue and $300 million to $350 million of adjusted EBITDA, and again expects to finish towards the lower end of both
• Hitting even the bottom of the EBITDA range implies at least about $115 million in Q4, against $71 million in Q4 2025; Entain, whose half-year results leaned on BetMGM, reports its Q3 on 15 October

A Strong Quarter Against a Soft Comparison, With the Full-Year Range Unchanged

BetMGM, the joint venture owned 50/50 by MGM Resorts International and Entain, published its third-quarter update on Tuesday 13 October through MGM's investor relations site and an Entain regulatory announcement. Net revenue rose 7% to $710 million and adjusted EBITDA more than doubled to $86 million from $41 million. Nine-month net revenue was $2.116 billion, up 5%, and adjusted EBITDA $185 million, up 24%. The figures are non-GAAP and unaudited, and adjusted EBITDA is stated before the parent fees BetMGM began paying its owners this year: $18 million in the quarter, $36 million so far in 2026.

iGaming net revenue rose 6% to $483 million, after growth of 9% in the first quarter and 8% in the second, according to BetMGM's quarterly updates. Online sports net revenue rose 7% to $216 million, after a flat second quarter, but handle grew only 3% to $3.24 billion, so margin did much of the work: gross gaming revenue hold was 10.7% against 10.1% a year earlier. BetMGM credits the World Cup and a rebuilt sportsbook released before the NFL season. Contribution, net revenue less cost of revenue and marketing acquisition spend, rose 32% to $175 million.

Average monthly actives fell 3% to 878,000, a decline the company describes as expected. Value per player rose instead: online sports NGR per active was up 18% and iGaming NGR per active 4%. BetMGM put its GGR market share in active markets at 14%, with 20% in iGaming and 8% in online sports, against 13% overall in its first- and second-quarter updates. The figure now covers six iGaming and online sports markets rather than five, after the launch in Alberta, where the company says per-player metrics are trending above its Ontario launch. It gave no Alberta figures.

BetMGM paid $68 million to its parents in the quarter, $18 million of parent fees and $50 million of excess cash, after no distribution in the second quarter. Chief executive Adam Greenblatt said the business remained "operationally nimble as we navigate a highly competitive environment".

The Guidance Has Been Tempered Twice This Year

BetMGM began 2026 guiding to net revenue of $3.1 billion to $3.2 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $300 million to $350 million, with a "pathway" to $500 million of adjusted EBITDA in FY 2027, according to its 4 February update. In April it cut the revenue range to $2.9 billion to $3.1 billion and said EBITDA would come in towards the lower end. In July it put both measures towards the lower end and, citing the "impact of prediction market regulatory complexity", said the $500 million target would arrive later than 2027.

Tuesday's update reiterates the lower-end expectation, cites "confidence in accelerating profitability in Q4", and says BetMGM "remains confident in delivering Adjusted EBITDA of $500 million in the coming years". It does not repeat July's wording on timing, does not mention prediction markets, and does not address state tax changes or new US launches. We have not reviewed the analyst webcast held on 13 October.

The Headline Growth Rests on a Weak Year-Ago Quarter

The 112% rise is real, but its base is weak: $41 million of EBITDA in Q3 2025, less than half the $86 million of the quarter before. Sequentially, adjusted EBITDA rose $12 million from the second quarter on almost identical revenue, a more modest and more useful signal. It suggests cost and marketing discipline is doing more of the work than demand: contribution grew more than four times as fast as revenue, while the active base shrank year on year for a third straight quarter. That suits a venture expected to send cash home to parents under pressure elsewhere, Entain from UK tax rises and Brazil's ban on online betting. It also has limits, because a shrinking base has to be monetised harder every quarter.

The Fourth Quarter Has to Be the Best BetMGM Has Reported

With $185 million of adjusted EBITDA after nine months, the bottom of the range requires roughly $115 million in the fourth quarter, about a third more than any quarter in the figures BetMGM has published since the start of 2025. The $2.9 billion revenue floor needs about $784 million, slightly above the $780 million of Q4 2025, a record quarter BetMGM said was helped by favourable sports results. Football season and year-end iGaming strength make a large Q4 plausible, but the outcome depends heavily on sports hold, which no operator controls.

Prediction Markets Have Left the Release, Not the Market

July's update named prediction markets as a reason to delay the $500 million target; October's is silent. That is not evidence the threat has eased. Eilers & Krejcik Gaming, in a note reported by Gambling Insider, forecast that prediction markets will take about 21% of combined NFL wagering this season, squarely in the quarter BetMGM is relying on. MGM chief executive Bill Hornbuckle called their push into Utah "obscene" at G2E, as we reported. BetMGM's answer is to lean on iGaming, which event contracts do not currently replicate, and on Nevada, where its online sportsbook handle rose 8%. That makes iGaming's slowing growth, from 9% to 6% across the year, the number to watch.

BetMGM has delivered the profitable, cash-returning quarter its owners wanted, flattered by an easy comparison. Whether 2026 ends where it promised now rests on one large fourth quarter, and Entain's results on 15 October and MGM's on 28 October are the next chance to test that confidence.