Macau's October GGR Falls 10% to MOP21.7 Billion Despite Golden Week

Macau's casinos won 10% less in October than a year earlier, the fifth monthly decline in a row and the second steepest of the year, even as the National Day holiday brought more than a million visitors. Year-to-date growth is down to 1.6%, but the government's budget figure is still well within reach.

• Macau's gross gaming revenue was MOP21,680 million in October, down 10.0% from MOP24,086 million a year earlier, according to the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ)
• October was the fifth consecutive year-on-year decline, after falls of 12.1% in June, 8.4% in July and 1.2% in both August and September
• Revenue rose 20.0% from September's MOP18,063 million as Golden Week visitor arrivals passed 1 million in six days, according to Asia Gaming Brief
• Revenue for January to October was MOP208,796 million, up 1.6% on the same period of 2025, and 88.5% of the government's MOP236 billion budget estimate for 2026
• The result was weaker than the 7% decline Jefferies forecast and fell outside the range of market forecasts reported by Asia Gaming Brief

Macau's Golden Week Month Fell Short of a Strong 2025 Base

Macau's casinos won MOP21,680 million (approximately $2.69 billion) in October, according to the DICJ's monthly table of gross revenue from games of fortune. That is 10.0% below October 2025, a gap of about MOP2.4 billion, and of the 10 months reported this year only June, down 12.1%, fell further. October 2025 had itself risen 15.9% on October 2024, according to the DICJ.

Growth ran through the first five months of 2026 before turning negative in June. On iGaming Times' arithmetic, October revenue averaged about MOP699 million a day, against about MOP777 million a day a year earlier.

Month on month, revenue was 20.0% above September's MOP18,063 million, the lowest month of the year. Asia Gaming Brief, which first reported the figure, linked part of the rebound to the NBA China Games held at The Venetian Macao early in the month.

Golden Week Crowds Did Not Lift Revenue Year on Year

The Macao Government Tourism Office (MGTO) counted 920,456 visitor arrivals in the first five days of the holiday, and Public Security Police figures took the six-day total to about 1.05 million, an average of about 175,000 a day, according to Asia Gaming Brief. That beat the MGTO-endorsed expectation of 150,000 a day, with a peak of 210,276 on 4 October.

Revenue for January to October was MOP208,796 million (approximately $25.9 billion), up 1.6% on MOP205,427 million, according to the DICJ. Cumulative growth was 10.9% at the end of May and 3.2% at the end of September.

Analysts had expected a smaller fall. Jefferies analysts Anne Ling and Jingjue Pei forecast on 13 October a 7% decline for October and continued weakness into November before a recovery in December, according to Focus Gaming News. Asia Gaming Brief reported that CLSA had held its forecast at MOP24.1 billion, flat year on year, that market forecasts ranged from a 3.5% decline to 4% growth, and that a China International Capital Corporation (CICC) note of 17 October saw "no clear near-term inflection point" in revenue or sector profitability.

The Budget Is Safe, the Growth Story Is Not

The government's 2026 budget assumes MOP236 billion (approximately $29.3 billion) of gaming revenue. On the DICJ's figures, Macau needs MOP27.2 billion in November and December to reach it, against MOP41,976 million in the same two months of 2025: revenue could fall by about 35% and still meet the target. Chief Executive Sam Hou Fai said in October that the government would assess October's revenue before considering any revision, according to Focus Gaming News. The fiscal question is settled. The market's question is whether 2026 ends with growth at all.

Visitors Are Arriving, but Spending per Head Is the Problem

Golden Week delivered the crowds the tourism office wanted, yet the month's revenue still fell 10%. That points at spending per visitor rather than access, consistent with the 7.9% fall in mass baccarat revenue in the third quarter, which was steeper than the market as a whole. Events and arrivals targets lift the sequential number; they have not yet restored year-on-year growth.

The Downturn Is Not Hitting Every Concessionaire Equally

The aggregate hides a divergence. MGM China posted record quarterly revenue of $1.14 billion in the third quarter and says its Macau market share reached a record 17.1%. In a market that shrank in the quarter, a share gain of that kind comes at rivals' expense, and fourth-quarter results will show which concessionaires are absorbing the decline.

Macau has now had five months of decline and its weakest year-to-date growth of 2026, with Golden Week unable to reverse the trend. The budget will be met, but the market needs November to confirm whether October's sequential rebound is the start of a turn or a holiday blip.