Gibraltar Courts Prediction Markets With Two Operators Authorised

Nigel Feetham opened a prediction markets summit by selling Gibraltar's July regime and claiming £250 million in extra corporate tax over three years. The summit brought no new rule or licence: Gibraltar offers two authorisations, a 0.15% duty and no passport elsewhere.

• Nigel Feetham, Gibraltar's Minister for Justice, Trade and Industry, told Prediction Markets Summit Europe on 10 November that the government has granted two prediction market authorisations, with further applications in the pipeline
• The Prediction Market Regulations 2026 came into force on 13 July under the Gambling Act 2025 as a distinct activity, not betting, gaming or a lottery
• A separate order sets a £30,000 application fee, a £100,000 annual fee and a duty of 0.15% of the commission an operator charges
• The £250 million Feetham called unprecedented is additional corporate tax above the baseline he inherited, summed over three years including the current, unfinished financial year
• Gambling Commissioner Andrew Lyman told iGaming Business that operators still need to enter other markets lawfully, one by one, while Spain and other European regulators keep blocking unlicensed platforms

Feetham Tells the Summit Gibraltar Is Not Selling a Shortcut

Prediction Markets Summit Europe, run by Eventus International, took place on Monday and Tuesday at the Sunborn in Gibraltar. Feetham, the minister responsible for both gambling and taxation, gave the opening address on Tuesday morning, according to the Gibraltar Chronicle. He described prediction markets as a "substantial opportunity for Gibraltar" and said the government had granted two authorisations, with more applications in the pipeline. Neither operator was named; iGaming Business reported in July that the first licence went to ADI Predictstreet.

His pitch was about standards rather than speed. "We do not want to compete by lowering standards or by suggesting that regulatory obligations can be avoided simply by choosing a particular jurisdiction," he said. Nor, he added, should anyone assume that authorisation in Gibraltar "automatically permits an operator to offer its products in every other country." He said Gibraltar should "be realistic" and may not be able to lead, but can learn from other frameworks, the Chronicle reports.

What the Regulations Provide

The Prediction Market Regulations 2026, Legal Notice 176 of 2026, came into operation on publication on 13 July. Prediction market activity carried on under them is a distinct activity under the Gambling Act 2025 and is not to be treated as betting, gaming or a lottery solely because of its prediction market characteristics. Every class of contract needs the licensing authority's approval or certification and must be capable of objective settlement. The authority may bar contracts relating to criminal conduct, death, serious injury, terrorism or war, or anything raising "reputational risk to Gibraltar". Operators may take stablecoins and must keep a substantive presence in Gibraltar, under the Gambling Commissioner's supervision.

The Prediction Market (Fees and Duties) Regulations 2026 followed on 13 August, setting a £30,000 application fee, a £100,000 annual fee and a general prediction market duty of 0.15% of commission charged, with no exemption.

What the £250 Million Measures

Feetham said his National Tax Strategy had raised "over £250 million" in additional corporate tax "above the baseline I inherited", counting the current financial year, calling it "unprecedented in the history of Gibraltar". It is a cumulative figure, not one year's receipts. His budget address on 9 July put corporate tax receipts for 2025/26 at £252 million, up 19% on the year before, and credited compliance and administration more than the rate rise from 12.5% to 15%. The same address estimated, conservatively, that the UK's higher gaming duty would cut Gibraltar's corporate tax by about £40 million, and said new licensees would not in themselves close that shortfall.

Lyman told iGaming Business that Gibraltar "has already moved from the theoretical to the practical application of a regulatory regime", but conceded operators "still need to lawfully enter other markets on an incremental basis". iGaming Business reports that Lyman is nearing the end of his contract and that no successor has been named.

The Tax Record Was Not Built on Prediction Markets

By Feetham's account, the £250 million came from tighter compliance and closer work with major businesses, at a time when the UK duty is squeezing Gibraltar's gaming sector. Prediction markets so far pay fees: two authorisations at £100,000 a year come to £200,000, on our arithmetic, and the duty yields £1,500 on every £1 million of commission. Against a £40 million estimated loss, the sector is a diversification bet, measured in jobs and corporate profits relocated to Gibraltar rather than in duty.

Gibraltar Can Authorise, but It Cannot Open Doors

The regulations reclassify prediction markets only for the purposes of Gibraltar's own Act. Spain blocked Polymarket and Kalshi in May on gambling grounds, and the European Securities and Markets Authority said in September that where event contracts are derivatives, national binary option rules bar their sale to retail investors. Feetham and Lyman both conceded that a Gibraltar authorisation does not open those markets. The regulations' reputational risk test gives the authority wide discretion, and it may first be used under a new Commissioner.

Gibraltar has a working regime and two authorised operators. Until a European regulator accepts a Gibraltar-authorised product as something other than unlicensed gambling, the territory's offer is a credible address rather than a market.