Nevis Launches a Prediction Market Licence at €18,000, Below Its Gaming Fee

Nevis has opened a dedicated licence for prediction market operators and suppliers, priced below its own gaming licence. Whether licensees may serve the United States depends on a restricted list the new documents leave blank.

• The Nevis Online Gaming Authority (NOGA) has launched a Nevis Prediction Market License for B2C operators and B2B technology providers, introduced on 30 October and announced on 2 November
• The authority's fee schedule sets a one-time licence fee of €18,000 and annual renewal of €18,000, against €28,000 for its iGaming licences, and publishes no capital figure or tax rate
• Licence conditions bar markets on death, assassination, terrorism and ongoing criminal proceedings, and require segregated customer funds, position limits and surveillance for wash trading
• Licensees must geo-block "Restricted Countries"; the authority's gaming list names the US, the UK, Australia, France, Germany, Spain, the Netherlands, Austria and Saint Kitts and Nevis itself
• No applicant has been named; the launch follows Hacksaw's B2B prediction markets under a Malta gaming licence, while the CFTC is suing Utah to block state enforcement

Nevis Adds a Separate Licence Category for Event-Based Markets

NOGA, the online gaming regulator of Nevis, the smaller island of Saint Kitts and Nevis, announced the Nevis Prediction Market License in a release dated 2 November. The framework, introduced on 30 October, sits apart from NOGA's B2C and B2B gaming licences and spans markets on sports, financial and economic indicators, political and electoral events, entertainment, weather and climate, and cryptocurrencies and digital assets, in binary, multi-outcome, pari-mutuel or market-maker structures, subject to approval, according to the release.

Nuri Katz, NOGA's chief executive, said in the release that the aim was "to provide greater clarity for businesses entering this sector" while keeping market integrity and participant protection central. The release adds that authorisation remains subject to the laws where licensees offer services, and names no applicant.

What the Licence Conditions Require

The licence conditions published on NOGA's application page prohibit markets on death, assassination, terrorism, an ongoing criminal proceeding or any category the authority designates. Licensees must segregate customer funds tied to open positions, run surveillance able to detect wash trading and self matching, set position limits per player and per market, and police conflicts of interest among staff, market creators and affiliates. Resolution methods and oracles are approved at application and cannot change without notice. Player ID and a utility bill are required before any payout and once aggregate deposits reach US$10,000.

Applicants must be Nevis companies with an independent compliance officer, a local reporting officer and one of three approved dispute-resolution providers. The requirements document asks for three-year projections, a liquidity plan and an independent test certificate for any in-house matching engine. On capital, the conditions say only that licensees must meet financial ratios NOGA notifies in writing; no figure, and no gaming tax, appears in the published documents.

Fees and the Legal Basis

NOGA's fees page lists €18,000 one-time for a B2C or B2B prediction market licence and €18,000 annual renewal, against €28,000 for iGaming. According to the site, Apex Capital Partners operates it as NOGA's management company, and NGA Management Limited of Gibraltar processes fees, with cryptocurrency accepted.

The authority rests on the Nevis Online Gaming Ordinance, No. 2 of 2025, passed on 29 April 2025 after Premier Mark Brantley moved it, and on regulations he made as Minister of Finance in June 2025. The release cites no new or amended instrument for the prediction market category, and the 2025 regulations deal with gaming licences.

The Restricted List Decides Who This Licence Is For

The conditions bar licensees from serving residents of "Restricted Countries" and require them to be geo-blocked, but define them by reference to each licensee's "own due diligence obligations and applicable legal requirements". The prediction market requirements document leaves its list of jurisdictions to block blank. NOGA's gaming list, also set in the 2025 regulations, names nine jurisdictions. If it applies, the licence excludes the US and European markets, including Spain and France, whose regulators have acted against these platforms. NOGA should say plainly which list governs.

Specific Conditions Sit on a Gaming Template

The market-specific rules address the real failure modes of the format: insider trading, manipulation, disputed resolution and commingled funds. The surrounding text is gaming boilerplate: it cites an "Online Gaming Act, 2025" rather than the Ordinance, speaks of "interactive gaming services" and "compulsive gamblers", and asks only for procedures to identify at-risk players and point them to support. Beyond a required responsible trading policy, no deposit limits or self-exclusion are named.

A Nevis Licence Is Not Market Access

The promised clarity for payment providers is the authority's claim. A Nevis licence confers no right to serve a market with its own rules: Spain's regulator says a prediction market offering gambling needs a Spanish licence, and NOGA's own release concedes the point. The offer is a cheaper Caribbean alternative while Curaçao licenses without its breached portal.

Nevis has written conditions aimed at the real risks of prediction markets. Until it names a licensee and says which markets are off limits, it is a rulebook in search of a market.