Robinhood Says Most Prediction Market Flow Will Move to Rothera and OG.com

Seven weeks after it began routing football contracts to Crypto.com's exchange, Robinhood has told investors that the exchange will become its main second venue behind Rothera and that it will move off "most of our competitors". It owns a stake in both venues, and the Crypto.com exchange is the one suing Missouri and Utah.

• Robinhood's chief financial officer, Shiv Verma, said on the 27 October results call that Rothera will be its primary prediction market exchange and Crypto.com/OG.com its main second exchange, with the two carrying "the vast majority" of its flow by early next year
• Under a partnership announced on 8 September, Robinhood began routing some football contracts to Crypto.com's CFTC-regulated exchange, which trades as OG.com
• Verma said Robinhood received an initial 1% stake in Crypto.com and OG.com with no cash outlay and can earn up to 10% depending on how much the companies partner
• Robinhood reported third-quarter event contract revenue of $173 million, up more than sixfold, on a record 16.4 billion contracts traded
• The exchange behind OG.com, North American Derivatives Exchange, has sued Missouri and Utah in federal court this month

Robinhood Moves From Renting Venues to Owning Them

Robinhood announced on 8 September that it would route "a selection of football event contracts" to Crypto.com's exchange and clearing house, which does business in the Crypto.com app as Crypto.com | Derivatives North America (CDNA) and in a separate trader-focused app as OG.com. Crypto.com's release identifies the entity as North American Derivatives Exchange, Inc., a designated contract market and derivatives clearing organisation. Robinhood said college and pro football contracts would go to "a combination of OG.com, Kalshi, and Rothera" depending on what each lists, that midterm election contracts would stay with Kalshi and Rothera for now, and that contracts would "still also be routed to Kalshi, ForecastEX, and Rothera".

Crypto.com's release framed it more broadly, as a "landmark multi-year partnership" making OG.com "an infrastructure and clearing provider" for Robinhood, with a catalogue spanning macroeconomic indicators, global sports, elections and cultural milestones. Both said Robinhood's equity would be priced in line with Citadel Securities' investment in the Crypto.com Group at a $20 billion valuation; Crypto.com put a standalone value of $5 billion on OG.com. Neither release disclosed the size of the stakes, and neither listed excluded states; Crypto.com's says only that OG.com is available "in approved jurisdictions".

On the 27 October results call, chief financial officer Shiv Verma said Robinhood had received "an initial 1% equity ownership stake" in Crypto.com and OG.com "with no cash outlay" and could earn up to 10%. Asked by Piper Sandler's Patrick Moley how Robinhood reconciles routing with owning stakes in rivals to Rothera, he said Rothera would be the primary exchange and Crypto.com/OG.com the main second exchange, and that "we'll be getting off most of our competitors". He did not name them; the September announcement had listed Kalshi and ForecastEX. Chief executive Vlad Tenev said Robinhood did not think it could "send all of our flow to one venue".

Rothera and the Third-Quarter Numbers

Rothera, Robinhood's joint venture with Susquehanna International Group, acquired 90% of MIAXdx, the former LedgerX, according to Robinhood's quarterly report, which says Robinhood does not operationally control it. Robinhood began routing contracts to Rothera in June. Its results release says Rothera passed $100 million in annualised revenue in its first full quarter.

Robinhood reported record total revenue of $1.4 billion, up 12% year on year, with event contract revenue of $173 million against $120 million from crypto, which fell 55%. Event contracts traded rose more than sevenfold to a record 16.4 billion. Verma said about 30% of the quarter's trading was non-sports, up from 15%, and that average daily event contract volumes in the opening weeks of the fourth quarter were about 10% above the third quarter's.

Owning the Venue Changes Who Captures the Spread

Robinhood began as a broker on someone else's exchange, telling Ohio's regulator in 2025 that it offered contracts traded on Kalshi, according to the commission's October letter. Rothera now gives it a share of exchange economics, and the Crypto.com deal gives it equity in the second venue, earned by sending it volume. For Kalshi, losing most of the flow of a broker that traded 16.4 billion contracts in a quarter would be a material loss of distribution. Verma said "there is no conflicts", because each contract is listed on one exchange and cannot be routed between them as equities can. But Robinhood now decides where a product is listed while owning part of both venues, and customers will have to trust how it makes that choice.

The Second Venue Is the One Fighting the States

Robinhood has taken the quieter route. It withdrew sports contracts from Michigan in September, and its results release says it has stopped offering certain event contracts because of actual or threatened state enforcement. Missouri and Ohio have both sent it cease-and-desist letters since mid-September; it had not sued Missouri when the deadline passed. North American Derivatives Exchange has taken the opposite course, suing Missouri on 16 October and Utah on 26 October to have state gambling law declared pre-empted. Robinhood is therefore concentrating its flow in an exchange that is litigating and another whose co-owner, Susquehanna, is a defendant in Utah's state court suit. If OG.com wins, Robinhood benefits without having sued; if it loses, the constraint falls on the venue Robinhood has chosen.

Robinhood Wants Finance, but Football Is What It Routed

Tenev said Robinhood was "less excited" about offering "all sports all the time", which he said was "rapidly going to get commoditized", and that "we can own the financial category", pointing to earnings and KPI contracts that Verma said were awaiting final approvals. Yet the first product it sent to OG.com was football, and on Verma's figures roughly 70% of third-quarter trading was still sports. The pivot to financial contracts is a stated plan, not yet the business mix, and it would arguably also take Robinhood towards the contracts least exposed to state gambling law.

Robinhood has turned a routing arrangement into an ownership position in the two venues that will carry most of its volume. Whether that pays depends less on the stakes than on how the courts treat the exchange it has chosen as its second venue.