BGC Says a 40% Machine Games Duty Would Put 16,000 Jobs at Risk, 80% Outside London

Two weeks before the Budget, the Betting and Gaming Council has put a map and a workforce profile on the EY figures it first published in September: up to 16,000 jobs, almost 1,500 betting shops and 34 casinos. The modelling itself is still unpublished, and the official data test it only in part.

• The Betting and Gaming Council (BGC) said on 13 October that raising Machine Games Duty (MGD) to 40% could cost up to 16,000 jobs, put almost 1,500 betting shops and as many as 34 casinos at risk, and leave the Treasury up to £124 million worse off, citing EY modelling
• According to the BGC, 80% of those jobs are outside London and 27% in the North of England, almost 40% with Scotland, and betting shops employ more than 36,000 people, 19% of them under 25 and half of them women
• The figures are unchanged from the BGC's Back Our Betting Shops campaign in September, and neither EY's report nor its assumptions has been published
• On Gambling Commission data, 1,500 shops would be more than a quarter of the 5,617 in Great Britain, and HMRC collected £641.0 million of MGD in 2025-26
• The BGC urged Chancellor John Healey to rule out any MGD rise at the 28 October Budget and to halt the April 2027 rise in General Betting Duty, which applies only to remote betting

The Trade Body Puts Its EY Numbers on a Map of Britain's Betting Shop Staff

The BGC said on Tuesday 13 October that Britain's betting shops support more than 36,000 jobs and that "thousands of these jobs would be put at risk" if the Chancellor increases MGD at the Budget. Citing "independent EY modelling", it said raising the duty to 40% could cost up to 16,000 jobs, put almost 1,500 betting shops and as many as 34 casinos at risk, and leave the Treasury up to £124 million worse off. Of the jobs at risk, 80% are outside London and 27% in the North of England, rising to almost 40% with Scotland, according to the release.

The new material is a profile of the shop workforce. More than 80% of betting shop jobs are outside London, 19% of employees are under 25 against 11% across the economy, 51% are under 35 against 35% nationally, and women make up half the workforce, according to the BGC. The release does not say where those figures come from. "For many, it is their first job, their first pay packet and their first opportunity to build a career," said Grainne Hurst, chief executive of the BGC.

Hurst asked the Chancellor to "rule out any increase in Machine Games Duty, assess the damage already caused by higher taxes and halt the planned rise in General Betting Duty". She said the Treasury recognised last year that land-based betting provides greater levels of employment.

The EY figures are not new. Hurst had set them out by 21 September, in a response to the Social Market Foundation's (SMF) proposal to double the duty. A slice of the same modelling appears in Beyond Gaming, a report on casinos by the Night Time Industries Association (NTIA) that the BGC promoted on 14 October and that was unveiled at London's Hippodrome Casino. It attributes 34 casinos, 3,800 jobs, £100 million of planned investment and £73 million of tax receipts at risk to the casino sector. iGaming Times could not find EY's report on the BGC's site or elsewhere.

What the Official Record Shows

MGD is charged on machines' net takings at 5%, 20% or 25% depending on the cost to play and the top prize, according to HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC). It raised £641.0 million in 2025-26, almost all of it at the 20% standard rate. The Times reported in September that the Treasury was modelling a doubling of all three bands; the Treasury has confirmed nothing, and the Budget is on Wednesday 28 October.

The 2025 Budget left MGD alone. It raised Remote Gaming Duty from 21% to 40% from 1 April 2026 and created a 25% General Betting Duty rate for remote bets from 1 April 2027, according to the HMRC policy paper. Bets placed over the counter or on self-service terminals in betting shops stay at 15%, as do remote bets on British horseracing.

The Gambling Commission counted 5,617 betting shops in Great Britain at 31 March 2026, against 8,304 in March 2019, and 136 casinos. Machines produced £1,196.2 million, or 49.4%, of non-remote betting yield in 2025-26.

The Map Is New, the Workings Are Not

The release adds geography and demography to numbers unchanged since September, and both are aimed. A workforce that is young, female and northern speaks to the government's push to get young people into work and to MPs for northern and Scottish seats. That is fair advocacy, but the claim still rests on modelling nobody outside the industry has seen. The casino slice of it has also shifted: the BGC put planned casino investment at risk at more than £50 million on 12 October, while the NTIA report cites £100 million two days later.

The Arithmetic Holds Together Only Loosely

The figures can be partly tested. At the BGC's average of about 6.4 jobs per shop, 36,000 across 5,617 shops, 1,500 closures would cost about 9,600 jobs. Add EY's 3,800 casino jobs and about 2,600 of the 16,000 are unaccounted for, perhaps arcades, bingo or indirect jobs; the release does not say. The fiscal claim is harder to test. On HMRC's figures, a doubling with no change in play would raise about £640 million more a year. For the Treasury to end up £124 million worse off, closures, lost play and other taxes would have to outweigh all of that. Even the SMF, which wants the rise, estimates £275 million to £458 million from Category B machines alone.

Betfred's Accounts Make the Industry's Best Case, the Online Receipts Its Worst

The strongest evidence for the industry is in a filing, not a model: Betfred charged £54.5 million of machine duty in a year it made £39.6 million after tax, and Fred Done says doubling the duty would close 495 of its shops. The strongest evidence against it is HMRC's: in July, the first month to reflect the higher online rate, Remote Gaming Duty receipts doubled to £589.7 million. Machines are not online casino, and a shop that closes pays nothing, so July proves little about MGD. The release's General Betting Duty request is also not about shops: the April 2027 rise falls on remote betting, while counter bets stay at 15%.

The BGC has drawn the most politically pointed version yet of a case it has made for a month. The Treasury will need EY's assumptions, not a regional breakdown, to judge whether a rise loses money.