Genius Sports Posts Its First Operating Profit and Raises 2026 Guidance

Genius Sports grew third-quarter revenue 62% on the back of Legend and, by its own account, turned its first operating profit. The guidance raise is small, prediction markets still carry no number, and the NFL sits outside every forecast.

• Genius Sports reported third-quarter revenue of $269.9 million on 5 November, up 62% and above its guidance of about $260 million, with adjusted EBITDA of $87.1 million against guidance of $85 million
• Income from operations was $10.4 million, which the company calls its first-ever operating profit, but interest on the debt raised for the Legend acquisition left a net loss of $15.7 million
• Full-year guidance rose to revenue of $1.015 billion to $1.035 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $287 million to $297 million, from $1.005 billion to $1.025 billion and $285 million to $295 million
• Like Sportradar two days earlier, Genius gave no prediction market revenue figure
• Chief executive Mark Locke said none of the company's guidance through 2028 assumes the NFL works with prediction markets

Legend Doubles the Media Business and the Margin Follows

Genius' results release, published on 5 November, put group revenue at $269.9 million against $166.3 million a year earlier. Genius now reports two segments. Betting Technology, Content & Services rose 33% to $153.0 million, which the company attributes mainly to price increases at renewal and value-added services. Media Technology, Content & Services rose 126% to $116.9 million, "primarily driven by the Legend acquisition".

Adjusted EBITDA rose 156% to $87.1 million, a margin of 32.3% against 20.4%. Free cash flow was $53.6 million, or 61.5% of adjusted EBITDA, although over nine months it remains negative at $136.2 million.

An Operating Profit, but Not Yet a Net Profit

Income from operations was $10.4 million, against a loss of $25.6 million a year earlier and a loss of $55.6 million in the second quarter. The release describes it as "Genius' first-ever quarter of income from operations". Stock-based compensation fell by $10.7 million to $15.2 million.

Net interest expense, however, was $19.1 million against $0.1 million a year earlier, after Genius borrowed $825 million this year; debt stood at $787.4 million on 30 September. The net loss was $15.7 million, a $13.1 million improvement.

Guidance Edges Up Again

The new range of $1.015 billion to $1.035 billion in revenue and $287 million to $297 million in adjusted EBITDA implies a 28.5% margin at the midpoint. Genius raised the range in August and reaffirmed it on 28 September, when it said Brazil's provisional measure banning betting and online gaming would have minimal impact because of how its contracts are structured. Genius also expects about $260 million of cash at year end, against $206.5 million at 30 September.

Subtracting nine-month results, the range implies fourth-quarter revenue of $361.7 million to $381.7 million and adjusted EBITDA of $123.3 million to $133.3 million, a margin Locke put at about 34.5% on the call, according to a published transcript.

Prediction Markets Sit Across Three Stages

The release lists partnerships with Polymarket and Kalshi covering content, integrity services and marketing, and the September launch of Prediction.com. On the call, Locke said Genius earns from customer acquisition, trading and settlement, with "over 50 new customers this year". He said it sells data to the market makers and takes a profit share from them alongside a data fee. The release's cautionary statement also cites "providing liquidity on prediction markets" and "potential trading or market-making losses".

Asked about the NFL's stance, Locke said "I don't speak for the NFL" and that a league move into prediction markets is not in guidance for 2026, 2027 or 2028. He said the NFL and Premier League rights, where most of its fees go, are locked in to the end of the decade. The NFL's August sportsbook renewals excluded prediction markets from the league data and intellectual property rights, and Genius is the league's official data distributor.

The First Operating Profit Is Real but Thin

The $10.4 million is a GAAP figure, not an adjusted one, but it is under 4% of revenue and interest on the Legend debt absorbed all of it. The more telling number is cash: Genius says its year-end target implies more than $100 million of free cash flow in the second half, and the third quarter supplied $53.6 million of it.

A $10 Million Raise Is Mostly the Beat Carried Forward

Revenue beat guidance by about $10 million and the full-year midpoint rose by $10 million; EBITDA beat by about $2 million and its midpoint rose by $2 million. The implied fourth quarter is essentially what the August range implied, and a forecast above $1 billion is not new: the range crossed that line in August.

Neither Data Supplier Will Size Prediction Markets

Sportradar called its contribution significant; Locke called the category the industry's biggest opportunity. Neither gave a figure. The risk language about liquidity and market-making losses suggests Genius' exposure may be more than a data feed. Meanwhile, the NFL data at the centre of its US business is the one product the league has kept from the exchanges.

Legend has lifted the margin and the operating line has turned. Until Genius discloses what prediction markets earn and the NFL changes its position, the upside it talks about most remains outside the numbers.