BGC Puts Black Market Jump Racing Bets at £500m but Publishes No Method

The Betting and Gaming Council's estimate for the National Hunt season, and its £10m figure for this weekend's Cheltenham meeting, come with no workings. The forecasts it does cite are published, and one does not say what the release says.

• The Betting and Gaming Council (BGC) said on 13 November that an estimated £500m will be staked with illegal operators over Britain's National Hunt season, and £10m at this weekend's Cheltenham November Meeting
• The release does not say how either figure was reached, or by whom
• H2 Gambling Capital's June 2026 report, posted on the BGC's website, puts offshore online turnover at £17bn in 2025 and £30bn in 2028, not £17bn in 2026 and more than £33bn by 2028 as the release states
• The Gambling Commission says it cannot yet robustly size the illegal market and urges caution over figures without a transparent method
• An IFHA study published on 6 November put illegal sites at about one in six UK racing betting visits, a traffic measure that sizes no stakes

The Trade Body Puts a Price on the Jump Season Before Safer Gambling Week

The Betting and Gaming Council said in a release on Friday 13 November that an estimated £500m will be wagered with illegal operators over the National Hunt season, which it dates from October to April. It expects £10m to be staked with them at Cheltenham's November Meeting, which runs to Sunday 15 November. The BGC also cites WARC analysis that unregulated operators account for almost half of UK gambling advertising spend, and an H2 Gambling Capital forecast that illegal stakes could grow from £17bn in 2026 to more than £33bn by 2028.

Grainne Hurst, chief executive of the BGC, said these operators "contribute nothing to British racing, pay no UK tax and offer none of the vital protections customers expect from licensed bookmakers". The BGC says the regulated sector supports 109,000 jobs, adds £6.8bn to the economy and over £4bn in tax a year, and that its members give racing more than £350m a year. Safer Gambling Week runs from 16 to 22 November.

The Cited Reports Are Published, and Differ From the Release

H2's June 2026 analysis, posted on the BGC's website, puts offshore online betting and gaming turnover at £17bn in 2025, £21bn in 2026, £30bn in 2028 and £33bn in 2029. It builds the estimate from web traffic and assumes offshore customers spend twice as much as licensed ones, which it calls "a fair proxy". On that basis offshore sites took £685m of gross gambling yield in 2025, about 8% of the online total.

WARC's April 2026 report, The Ad Spend Disconnect, forecasts unregulated advertising at £845m, or 44.6% of the total, in 2025/26, and 47.7% in 2026/27.

The Racing Figures Are the Kind the Regulator Warned About

In a report on sizing the illegal market on 6 November 2025, the Gambling Commission said it was "not yet in a position to make a robust and reliable estimate" and urged caution over third-party estimates without a transparent method, or giving "precise 'point estimates'" without margins for error. The £500m and £10m fit that description, and neither cited report breaks out racing to test them.

Racing's Evidence Counts Visits, Not Money

The IFHA study counted 19.4 illegal visits per 100 licensed ones from January to July 2026, and says its ratio is not a measure of market share. The Commission's Illegal Gambling Index found 2.5% of online gamblers had used an illegal site in the past four weeks. Both show a real problem for racing, which gets no levy from illegal operators, but neither sizes stakes.

The Lobby Has a Pattern of Unexplained Numbers

Before the 28 October Budget, the BGC put up to 3,800 casino jobs at risk from a 40% Machine Games Duty without setting out a method, then cited 16,000 jobs from unpublished EY modelling. This time the forecasts are published, which is what exposes the mismatch.

The threat illegal betting poses to racing is documented, though not yet sized. The £500m is the BGC's own assertion until it shows how the figure was built.