BGC Warns a 40% Machine Games Duty Would Put Up to 3,800 Casino Jobs at Risk

The Betting and Gaming Council says doubling Machine Games Duty would force some casino operators to consider closing up to a third of their venues, with half the threatened closures in the North of England and Scotland. It publishes no method, and a year ago it put a similar job toll on a far smaller rise.

• The Betting and Gaming Council (BGC) said on 12 October that raising Machine Games Duty from 20% to 40% would put up to 3,800 casino jobs at risk and force some operators to consider closing as much as a third of their estates
• By the BGC's count, half the threatened closures would be in the North of England and Scotland, around 1,900 jobs, with 20% in the Midlands and 10% in London; the release names no venues and sets out no method
• In November 2025 the trade body said a rise to only 25% would close around 40 casinos and cost 3,500 jobs
• Gambling Commission data show 136 casinos in Great Britain at the end of March, with machines earning £238.9 million of the sector's £933.9 million GGY, so a doubling would cost casinos roughly £48 million a year before any closures
• The warning follows Rank's warning that a third of its venues would close and Genting's estimate that 13 of its 32 casinos would become unviable, with the Budget due on 28 October

The Casino Lobby Puts a Job Count and a Map on a 40% Rate

The BGC said on Monday 12 October that raising Machine Games Duty (MGD) to 40% "would pose an existential threat to Britain's casinos", putting up to 3,800 jobs at risk and forcing some operators to consider closing as much as a third of their estates. Half of all threatened closures would be in the North of England and Scotland, around 1,900 jobs, with 20% in the Midlands and 10% in London, according to the release. It does not say where the remaining fifth would fall, how many venues it counted or whether the 3,800 includes indirect jobs.

The trade body says casinos directly employ more than 10,000 people, support a further 3,700 jobs, welcome 14 million visits a year, contribute £515 million in taxes and generate £815 million for the economy. It also warns that more than £50 million of planned investment could be cancelled or scaled back, a figure it said on 2 October came from the plans of four large operators.

"This is an existential threat to casinos across Britain," said Grainne Hurst, chief executive of the BGC. "You cannot tax a casino that has closed. The Chancellor must not gamble with thousands of British jobs and the future of an entire industry."

What the Official Data Show

MGD is charged on machines' net takings at 5%, 20% or 25% depending on the cost to play and the prize, according to HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC), and almost all of it is paid at the 20% standard rate: £630.5 million of £638.2 million in declared liabilities in 2025-26. Receipts from all venues were £641.0 million that year; casinos separately paid £173.9 million of Gaming Duty on table games. The Times reported in September that the Treasury was modelling a proposal to double all three bands. The Treasury has confirmed nothing, and iGaming Times found no published consultation on MGD rates. The 2025 Budget raised Remote Gaming Duty to 40% but left MGD unchanged.

The Gambling Commission counts 136 casino premises in Great Britain at 31 March 2026, down from 141 a year earlier and 144 in March 2024. Casino GGY was £933.9 million in the year to March, up 0.4%: £695.0 million from table games and £238.9 million from machines. Machines in casinos rose from 3,127 to 4,361 over the year, after reforms gave casinos larger allocations, while machine GGY rose about 3%, from £231.5 million. Casino GGY remains below the £1,058.8 million of 2018-19.

The BGC's Numbers Have Moved More Than the Rate Has

In November 2025 the BGC Casino Group said a rise to 25% would close around 40 casinos and cost 3,500 jobs, "a third of the entire UK casino workforce". In September the BGC cited EY modelling that a 40% rate would put as many as 34 casinos at risk. Now it says up to 3,800 jobs. A rise four times as large is said to cost 300 more jobs than the smaller one, at fewer casinos. Different analysts, and a softer verb (operators would now only "consider" closures), may explain some of it. But none of the analyses has been published, so the figures cannot be reconciled and read as advocacy estimates rather than a forecast.

The Regulator's Data Make the Cost Real, if Smaller Than the Rhetoric

Twenty percentage points on £238.9 million of machine GGY is about £48 million a year, roughly 5% of casino GGY. GGY is not exactly the net takings on which the duty falls, but the operators' figures fit: Genting's £16 million estimate implies about £80 million of machine takings, and Rank's Grosvenor casinos reported £113.2 million of machine revenue in their last financial year, together about four-fifths of the sector total. For a sector still below its 2018-19 revenue, and eight venues smaller than two years ago, 5% off the top is material. It also falls on the product modernisation was meant to grow, with more than 1,200 machines added last year. "Existential" for an entire industry is a stretch; painful for the weakest venues is not.

The Fiscal Argument Turns on Which Casinos Close

Hurst's line that a closed casino pays no tax can be roughly tested on the BGC's own figures. Its £515 million spread across 136 casinos is about £3.8 million each, so roughly 13 average casinos would have to close to cancel out the extra £48 million; Genting alone says 13 of its casinos would become unsustainable. But the first to close are the marginal venues, which pay less than average, and some spending and staff would move elsewhere. Meanwhile the Treasury holds the first evidence from the online rise: Remote Gaming Duty receipts doubled in July. The regional map is aimed at the MPs in the North, Scotland and the Midlands who would feel the closures.

The BGC has put a large number and a map in front of the Chancellor, but not the workings behind either. The regulator's data say the cost is real and about £48 million a year; whether it closes a third of anyone's estate is a claim the Treasury will have to test before 28 October.