Half of California Voters Back Sports Betting at Tribal Casinos, but Only 37% Want It Online

A Citrin-POLITICO poll finds 50% of registered voters in favour of legal sports betting at tribal casinos, four years after a tribal in-person measure won 33% of the vote. Online betting still trails 37% to 50%, which is the part California's tribes now have to win in 2028.

• Half of California's registered voters said they would favour legal sports betting at tribal casinos in a Citrin-POLITICO poll released this week, while online sports betting drew 37% support and 50% opposition, according to POLITICO
• The survey of 1,149 registered voters was conducted online from 9 to 14 October by TrueDot with UC Berkeley's Citrin Center, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 points
• In November 2022 Proposition 26, in-person betting at tribal casinos and four racetracks, won 33.0% of the vote, and Proposition 27, commercial online betting, won 17.7%, according to the Secretary of State's Statement of Vote
• The exact question wording, the share opposed to tribal casino betting and the crosstabs have not been published openly; POLITICO's report sits behind its Pro paywall
• California Nations Indian Gaming Association chair James Siva told POLITICO the tribes plan a 2028 measure covering online and casino betting under tribal control, a campaign that asked sportsbooks for terms in June

Voters Have Moved on Tribal Casino Betting, Less So on Online

Half of California's registered voters would favour legal sports betting at tribal casinos, according to a Citrin-POLITICO poll published this week. Support for online sports gambling was lower: 37% backed legalising it and 50% opposed it, POLITICO reported. The Jack Citrin Center for Public Opinion Research at the University of California, Berkeley lists the story, "Poll: Half of CA voters back sports betting at tribal casinos", among those drawn from its October survey.

The survey was fielded by TrueDot, an AI research platform, according to the methodology POLITICO publishes with its poll stories. Interviews were conducted online in English and Spanish from 9 to 14 October among 1,149 registered voters, including 909 likely voters, recruited through Verasight with a supplemental online panel and weighted to registered-voter benchmarks. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.2 points for registered voters and 3.6 points for likely voters.

What has not been published openly matters as much. POLITICO's sports betting story is on its subscription Pro service, and the summaries of it give no opposition or undecided figure for the tribal casino question, no likely-voter breakdown and no question wording. The Citrin Center's page carries no topline. Half of registered voters, with a 3.2-point margin, is not a majority.

The 2022 Benchmark Was a Rout

The comparison the poll invites is with November 2022, when Californians rejected both sports betting measures on the ballot. Proposition 26, Sports Wagering on Tribal Lands, failed by 3,514,597 votes to 7,129,127, or 33.0% to 67.0%, according to the Secretary of State's Statement of Vote. Proposition 27, Online Sports Wagering Outside of Tribal Lands, failed by 1,906,342 to 8,849,206, or 17.7% to 82.3%. The tribes backed Proposition 26; commercial operators including DraftKings and FanDuel backed Proposition 27.

Proposition 26 also asked for more than the poll did: in-person betting at the state's four privately operated racetracks, roulette and dice games at tribal casinos, and a new way to enforce certain gambling laws, according to the Legislative Analyst's Office. Shares of ballots cast after a costly campaign are not comparable with a sample's answer to a shorter question, so the move from 33% to 50% shows direction rather than a measured swing.

In August 2025 a POLITICO, Citrin Center and Possibility Lab survey found 60% of registered voters open to legalisation in general terms and four in ten opposed, Legal Sports Report reported; that question did not separate online from in-person betting.

Siva told POLITICO the tribes had kept working on sports betting since 2022 and that prediction markets had focused their effort, according to PlayUSA's summary of the report. Any online platforms would take part as service providers, he said, with the tribes remaining the operators. DraftKings said it was committed to working with tribal groups on a framework for legal online sports betting that benefits tribes and their communities. FanDuel and DraftKings have both launched prediction markets in California, POLITICO noted.

A Poll Question Is Not a Ballot Measure

Half of registered voters favouring a short, general proposition is not half of a 2028 electorate voting on a long constitutional amendment that opponents will spend to define. The honest reading is narrower: voters' starting position on betting inside tribal casinos is no longer hostile, and opposition to online betting is now a 13-point gap rather than the roughly 65-point margin by which Proposition 27 lost. Without the question wording and the undecided share, even that comparison is approximate.

The Tribes Now Own the Online Problem They Used to Campaign On

In 2022 the tribes' message was that online betting was the threat. Their 2028 plan, as CNIGA's request for information set out, is an online market under a single tribal consortium, with a stated principle to "protect against iGaming". The poll suggests that voters accept the tribes as the operators and the casino as the venue, and are still unconvinced about the phone. Moving 37% to a majority means persuading the same voters the tribes once told to reject online betting that the medium was never the problem, only the operator. That is a harder message than it sounds.

Prediction Markets Are Settling the Online Question Without Voters

While the ballot is two years away, Californians can already trade sports outcomes on their phones through Kalshi and the prediction products of DraftKings and FanDuel, under federal commodities rules rather than a state or tribal gaming licence. The Ninth Circuit held in September that Kalshi's sports contracts are Class III gaming on two California tribes' lands, and a northern California tribe, the Kletsel Dehe Wintun Nation, has since launched an app on Kalshi's rails. Each month of exchange trading normalises online sports wagering in a state whose voters say they oppose it. That helps the tribes if it softens voters on the phone, and hurts them if it settles customers on platforms they do not control. The 2028 measure is the tribes' attempt to bring both under one licence.

California's voters have moved on where sports betting happens faster than on how. A poll can show the tribes where to start; it cannot tell them what a 2028 ballot will say or how the campaign against it will be fought.