NBA and WNBA Name Prediction Markets Alongside Sports Betting in New Responsible Gaming Campaign

The leagues' new campaign with the National Council on Problem Gambling tells fans that trading on a prediction market puts their money at risk just as a sports bet does, weeks after the NBA was reported to be close to its first prediction-market deals. The release names no budget, no creative and no start date.

• The NBA and WNBA announced on 13 October a responsible gaming campaign with the National Council on Problem Gambling (NCPG), to launch during the 2026-27 NBA season and aimed at fans, particularly young adults
• The release treats sports betting and prediction markets together, saying both "can put fans at meaningful risk when not done responsibly" and should be entertainment, not a way to generate income
• A new spot will run on social and linear platforms through league-owned and partner channels, but the creative, the debut date and the spend have not been disclosed
• The NBA has no official prediction-market partner, but Front Office Sports reported on 3 September that it had "deal terms on the table" with several platforms, including Kalshi and Polymarket
• The council itself is under strain: two state regulators and two state councils have left it since its $2 million Kalshi arrangement, and its executive director leaves on 16 October

The Leagues Put a Prediction-Market Trade on the Same Footing as a Bet

The National Basketball Association (NBA) and the Women's National Basketball Association (WNBA) announced on Tuesday 13 October a responsible gaming campaign in collaboration with the NCPG, according to the leagues' release. Launching during the 2026-27 NBA season, it is meant to educate fans, "particularly young adults", about the risks of sports betting and prediction markets. A new spot will run across social and linear platforms through NBA- and WNBA-owned and partner channels. The creative and the debut timing will be announced later, the release says.

The message is the notable part. Whether placing a sports bet or trading on a prediction market, "both activities can put fans at meaningful risk when not done responsibly", the release says, and the harm can extend to mental well-being and relationships. The campaign will stress that however much a fan thinks they know about sports, their money is at risk, and that these activities should be for entertainment, "not an effort to generate income". Fans will be encouraged to set limits on time and money, not to risk money they cannot afford to lose and to seek support, and will be pointed to the NCPG's ResponsiblePlay.org and the National Problem Gambling Helpline, 1-800-MY-RESET.

Scott Kaufman-Ross, the NBA's head of media distribution and partnerships, said the league wants fans who "choose to bet, trade or anything similar" to do so responsibly. NCPG board president Derek Longmeier called awareness "an important first step in preventing gambling-related harm". The release cites no research or harm data and names no sportsbook or prediction-market partner.

It builds, the leagues say, on the NBA's existing responsible gaming education work with the NCPG. In November 2023 the NBA, Major League Baseball (MLB) and the National Hockey League (NHL) released "Never Know What's Next", a 30-second spot made with support from DraftKings, Fanatics Sportsbook, FanDuel, PENN Entertainment and the NCPG, which told bettors there are no "locks" and no "easy money", according to the NBA's release at the time. That campaign was about sports betting alone.

A Season Opener, Pending Deals and an Integrity Year

The announcement came a week before the NBA season tips off on 20 October and days before the WNBA Finals between the Atlanta Dream and the Golden State Valkyries, InGame reports. Both leagues' sports betting partners are DraftKings and FanDuel, which also offer prediction products, according to InGame. Front Office Sports reported that the NBA had circulated a proposal to platforms including Kalshi, Polymarket, Novig, Fanatics and Rothera, a Robinhood and Susquehanna joint venture, and was expected to sign several partners with different levels of rights. MLB named Polymarket its exclusive prediction-market partner in March, a deal sources told Front Office Sports is worth $300 million over four years.

The campaign also lands a year after federal indictments in October 2025 charged Miami Heat guard Terry Rozier over an alleged insider betting scheme, to which he has pleaded not guilty, and Portland Trail Blazers coach Chauncey Billups in a separate case over allegedly rigged poker games. The NBA has since tightened injury reporting and pressed sportsbooks to curb some player props, according to ESPN's reporting at the time, and in September joined the other major leagues in asking 35 states to ban bettors who threaten athletes. The release mentions none of this.

The League Has Set a Harm Standard Before It Signs

The language is the substance. Prediction-market operators argue that event contracts are trading, not gambling, a claim states are contesting in court and that the NCPG rejected on 22 September, when Longmeier wrote that prediction markets are "functionally gambling" whatever their legal definition. The leagues avoid the word gambling, but they put a trade beside a bet and send people who struggle to a problem gambling helpline. For a league reportedly about to license its marks to prediction markets, that sets a public expectation before any contract is signed: a partner would find it hard to argue its product needs no gambling-style safeguards when the league's own advertising says otherwise. Whether that expectation is written into the deals is not disclosed.

The NCPG Brings Its Own Kalshi Question

The choice of partner is harder to read. The NCPG took a $2 million, two-year investment from Kalshi in May, and since then the Ohio and Michigan regulators and the Nevada and Washington state councils have walked away; on 7 October Nevada's Gaming Control Board backed taking the council's name out of its helpline rule, its chair citing the Kalshi money. The NBA and WNBA are themselves platinum members of the council, as are MLB and the NFL, according to InGame. The NCPG says donor engagement does not mean endorsement, and a campaign that warns young fans about prediction markets is at least consistent with that. But a council funded by Kalshi, working with a league negotiating with Kalshi, is a weaker messenger than the council was in 2023, and from 16 October it will have no executive director and no named successor.

The NBA and WNBA have said in public that a prediction-market trade carries the risk of a bet, before selling rights to the platforms that sell those trades. The spot, the spend and the airtime, none of which is yet known, will show how hard they mean it.